'High odds' XRP, Solana, Dogecoin and Litecoin ETFs approved: analysts

Bloomberg ETF Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas believe exchange-traded products based on cryptocurrencies XRP, solana, dogecoin and litecoin all have favorable odds of securing approvals, according to a post on Monday.

"Balchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We're putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board," Seyffart said in a post to X. "Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now."

The analysts estimate that Litecoin ETFs filed by Canary Capital and Grayscale have the highest chance of approval, rating those filings as possessing a 90% chance of approval. After Litecoin, Dogecoin products received a 75% chance of approval, followed by Solana and XRP products, which the analysts expect have a 70% and 65% likelihood of approval, respectively. 

Since Donald Trump became president last month, the U.S. government has swiftly been repositioning itself to be increasingly pro-crypto, signaling that regulatory obstacles that have stunted the growth of the digital assets industry may be eliminated. Given Trump's embrace of crypto, would-be issuers have applied for the right to list spot crypto ETFs tracking cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin and Ethereum.

Last year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs.

'Really good odds"

Balchunas pointed out on Monday how much has changed since Trump won the presidential election last November.

"Keep in mind all of this stuff (except Litecoin which was always high) was <5% prior to election," he said in a post to X. "So these are really good odds relatively speaking, and will likely grow the more we see these go through the typical process."

Seyffart said the "implications" and "expectations" the two analysts accounted for when estimating the likelihood of the new ETFs being approved included: "Filings will be acknowledged. Likely this week for XRP and Dogecoin," he said. "The SEC and Commissioner Peirce's Crypto task force will untangle some of the security vs. commodity implications from lawsuits by the end of 2025."

In January, Republican Commissioner Hester Peirce was tapped to lead a crypto task force meant to "set the SEC on a sensible regulatory path." The move will likely help usher in a new regulatory framework for regulating cryptocurrencies and digital asset-related products.

Then, last week, Cboe BZX Exchange filed 19b-4s on behalf of Bitwise, 21Shares and Canary to list and trade spot exchange-traded products that track XRP.

Commenting specifically on XRP filings, Seyffart also posted that "until that whole mess of litigation between Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished or has some sort of expected outcome, etc, etc — you likely won't see an ETF. The SEC needs to untangle that mess."