Standard Chartered says buy bitcoin 'now,' sees rally to $120,000 in Q2

Bitcoin is expected to hit a fresh all-time high of around $120,000 in the second quarter, driven by strategic reallocation away from U.S. assets, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, who says "buy now."

"A number of indicators support our view that Bitcoin is headed for the next leg higher," Kendrick said in a new report published Monday and shared with The Block. "U.S. Treasury term premium (which has a close correlation to BTC) is at a 12-year high. Time-of-day analysis suggests that U.S.-based investors may be seeking non-U.S. assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin accumulation by 'whales' (major holders) has been strong. Meanwhile, ETF flows in the past week suggest safe-haven reallocation from gold into BTC."

U.S. investors have been buying bitcoin since President Donald Trump's April 9 announcement of a 90-day tariff reprieve for all countries except China, based on time-of-day trading patterns, according to Kendrick. Before the announcement, bitcoin moved lower with tech stocks; since then, it has outperformed. "The correlation breakdown and U.S. buying suggest that U.S. investors are seeking non-U.S. assets," Kendrick said. Asian investors have also started buying bitcoin, reinforcing the trend, he added.

Meanwhile, "whale" investors — those holding more than 1,000 bitcoin — have been accumulating through both the tariff-led decline and the recovery linked to risks around Federal Reserve independence, Kendrick said. Whales also heavily bought during past major rallies, including the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, bitcoin ETF approvals, and Trump's election win, signaling that this period could be just as pivotal for bitcoin's next move, according to Kendrick.

While "timing breakouts in bitcoin is not easy," Kendrick wrote in an email sharing the report, he emphasized that "now" is the time to buy as a topside move builds. Kendrick maintains his year-end 2025 bitcoin price target of $200,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $95,500, with its all-time high of $108,786 reached on Jan. 20, 2025, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.

Kendrick said bitcoin's sharp gains could continue through the summer, supported by growing institutional interest, upcoming 13F filings for U.S. ETFs in mid-May that could reveal long-term buying by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the potential passage of U.S. stablecoin legislation, which could further legitimize the asset class and support structural price gains.

'Bitcoin is a better hedge than gold'

Bitcoin's primary role in investor portfolios is as a hedge against risks to the existing financial system, Kendrick said. While gold offers a similar hedge, "we would argue that Bitcoin is more effective in this regard because of its decentralized nature," he added.

In contrast, gold serves as a better hedge against geopolitical risks and has traded more steadily during this year's tariff escalation, given its lower correlation to risky assets, Kendrick noted.

A recent shift from gold ETFs into bitcoin ETFs also signals that bitcoin is increasingly being seen as a better hedge than gold against risks to the financial system, according to Kendrick.

Kendrick has recently issued a series of bold predictions across the crypto market. Earlier this month, he projected that Avalanche's AVAX token could surge more than 10x to $250 by 2029 and that XRP could climb to $12.50 by 2028 — a gain of over 500%. In contrast, he cut his 2025 price target for ether to $4,000. He also expects total stablecoin supply to rise nearly tenfold to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, driven by anticipated U.S. regulation.

Standard Chartered's crypto analysts do not hold any digital assets, Kendrick told The Block when contacted on Apr. 15, 2025.