Mizuho upgrades Circle shares outlook citing Polymarket’s use of USDC for settlement

Mizuho Securities has reversed course on Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), saying Wednesday that Polymarket’s growing popularity could drive the company’s shares higher.

"For Polymarket, all bets are settled in USDC, meaning Polymarket's growth will directly fuel USDC growth," analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins wrote. "We anticipate momentum in 2026 will continue for prediction markets, translating into USDC market cap growth and incremental revenue for Circle."

Circle is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, the world's second-largest USD-pegged token in terms of market cap. In November, Mizuho lowered its price target for Circle shares, in part because the firm's analysts expected USDC adoption to disappoint. At the time, they set a new price target for Circle shares of $70.

On Wednesday, Mizuho went the other direction, upgrading Circle's shares to a “neutral” rating while raising its share price target to $77.

"Polymarket draws a large share of non-crypto-native users into crypto via event trading, which drives incremental demand for USDC from outside the usual DeFi audience," Mizuho also said. 

The firm added that USDC's market capitalization roughly doubled from roughly $30 billion in early 2024 to over $60 billion in March 2025, before the stablecoin's supply then hit about $75 billion towards the end of 2025.

 "While multiple factors drove that growth (regulatory clarity, institutional use, etc.), Polymarket has been a contributor," Mizuho added. "Looking ahead 1 to 2 years, we expect Polymarket’s continued expansion (especially with U.S. access restored) to add billions in incremental USDC market cap."

Circle shares were up over 3.5% on Wednesday, changing hands at around $72.50 on Wednesday, according to The Block's price data. The company's shares surged to nearly $300 at one point last June, not long after Circle's celebrated initial public offering.

After facing U.S. enforcement action from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, Polymarket has recently reopened access to a limited set of participants. Its main rival, Kalshi, together with Polymarket, now accounts for more than $10 billion in monthly trading volume.