Bitcoin’s quantum risk is ‘long-dated and manageable,’ Benchmark pushes back on panic

Wall Street’s debate over whether quantum computing poses an existential threat to bitcoin has been growing over the past year or so, but analysts at Benchmark are pushing back on growing alarmism, arguing the risk remains both  "long-dated" and "manageable."

In a research note published Thursday, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer wrote that quantum computing represents a real theoretical vulnerability for bitcoin’s cryptography, but stressed that practical attacks are likely “decades away, not years,” leaving ample time for the network to adapt before the threat becomes acute.

Bitcoin relies on cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. Meaning that, in theory, a powerful quantum computer could break that protection by deriving private keys from publicly visible information. Palmer stressed that only bitcoin in addresses that have already exposed their public keys would be vulnerable, not the entire supply.

Some researchers estimate that roughly 1 million to 2 million bitcoins reside in addresses with exposed public keys, such as reused addresses or early “Satoshi-era” wallets, according to the report, a more conservative estimate than some other researchers, who have put the figure closer to 7 million. 

That higher-end estimate aligns more closely with comments from K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde, who said last month that while about 6.8 million bitcoins could theoretically be vulnerable in a future quantum scenario, the timeline remains uncertain and the issue warrants developer coordination, not panic selling.

Views on the timeline also vary widely. In a November 2025 post, Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist and early bitcoin investor, said he believes quantum threats to bitcoin could emerge within the next two to five years, a timeline that would significantly compress the window for defensive upgrades.

That view was challenged by Adam Back, a longtime Bitcoin contributor and cryptographer, who said the risk was more likely “20 to 40 years away, if then.”

Benchmark also rejected the idea that bitcoin is too rigid to adapt, arguing the network has evolved before in response to material risks, including through upgrades such as Taproot. It expects any shift toward quantum resistance to follow a similar, gradual path rather than an abrupt protocol change.

Quantum preparedness

The report comes amid rising industry attention on quantum preparedness.

Last week, the Ethereum Foundation formed a dedicated post-quantum security team and announced a $1 million research prize, while Coinbase recently launched a quantum advisory council to evaluate risks and mitigation strategies across blockchains

Some investors have begun to reassess the risk, adjusting their model portfolios more cautiously. Earlier this month, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing quantum computing as an “existential” risk to its long-term store-of-value thesis.