Analysts see 400% upside for GEMI as Gemini’s overseas exit may speed profitability

Gemini’s decision to exit several overseas markets and cut staff could help the exchange accelerate its path to profitability, according to a new analyst note from Mizuho.

Shares of Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) traded around $7.60 on Thursday after falling to an all-time low of $6.35 a day earlier, according to The Block price data, as a broad selloff across crypto assets and equities pressured exchange-related stocks.

The Winklevoss-founded crypto exchange said this week it will wind down operations in the UK, European Union, and Australia while reducing its workforce by roughly 25%, as the firm narrows its focus to the U.S. market.

Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins described the move as “margin-accretive,” arguing that Gemini is shifting away from costly geographic expansion toward markets where regulations are clearer and institutional demand is stronger. The firm reiterated its Outperform rating and $26 price target on the stock.

The exchange will now focus primarily on the U.S. and Singapore, which analysts view as jurisdictions offering clearer licensing regimes and stronger institutional growth prospects. Concentrating operations in fewer markets should also allow Gemini to redeploy compliance and operational resources more efficiently.

The restructuring is expected to result in roughly $11 million in charges in the first quarter, but Mizuho expects expenses to fall later this year, improving operating leverage by the second half of 2026. Analysts said profitability has been a persistent criticism of Gemini, making the reset an important step for investors.

Mizuho also outlined a bull-case scenario in which stronger user growth and a quicker return to profitability could push shares toward $43, or more than 400% above current trading levels.

Gemini outlook vs exchange sentiment

Mizuho’s upbeat call on Gemini comes even as investor sentiment toward crypto exchanges remains divided.

In a survey last month, the firm found both retail and institutional investors generally favor fintech stocks over crypto companies in 2026, with views on crypto-native exchanges split between expected winners and laggards.

Despite this, the firm kept an outperform rating on Gemini, pointing to user growth and product breadth potential.

Gemini has also been expanding its U.S. footprint, in December receiving Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval to launch regulated prediction markets. Mizuho sees that business, alongside Gemini’s institutional custody services, as core areas where the company can defend and potentially grow market share.