The Daily: Standard Chartered warns of further 'pain and final capitulation' for BTC and ETH, Binance completes $1B SAFU conversion to bitcoin, and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Thursday! Fresh off its weekend dip, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sank to a record low reading of 5 this morning, according to The Block's data dashboard, with sentiment now worse than prior bear market lows.

In today's newsletter, Standard Chartered sees "more pain and a final capitulation period" for digital asset prices ahead, Binance completes the conversion of $1 billion in SAFU reserves to bitcoin, Brian Armstrong's Coinbase share sales top $500 million in nine months, and more.

Meanwhile, the "clock is ticking" as the crypto bill's 2026 fate hinges on Trump and stablecoin yields, Sarah Wynn reports.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!

Standard Chartered sees bitcoin falling to $50,000, ether to $1,400 before rebound

Standard Chartered warned bitcoin could fall to around $50,000 and ether to $1,400 in the coming months before rebounding later this year.

• "I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices," Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick said in a Thursday note.
• The bank now sees bitcoin (BTC) reaching $100,000 and ether (ETH) hitting $4,000 by year-end, marking further downgrades from prior $150,000 and $7,500 targets.
• Standard Chartered also cut its 2026 forecasts for SOL, XRP, BNB, and AVAX, largely adjusting them to reflect relative moves in BTC and ETH.
• Kendrick estimated that exchange-traded fund holdings have fallen by nearly 100,000 BTC since October 2025, noting many bitcoin ETF buyers are sitting on unrealized losses near an equivalent $90,000 average entry price.
• He also argued macro headwinds and delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts could limit fresh crypto inflows until closer to a potential leadership change at the central bank.
• Despite the near-term pain, Kendrick said the downturn looks less severe than prior cycles and expects digital assets to recover through the rest of 2026 as institutional participation grows.

Binance finalizes $1 billion SAFU reserve conversion into bitcoin

Binance completed the $1 billion conversion of its Secure Asset Fund for Users, or SAFU, reserve into bitcoin on Thursday, finalizing the transition within 30 days of its initial announcement.

• The crypto exchange bought a final 4,545 BTC tranche, bringing the fund's total holdings to 15,000 BTC valued at roughly $1.005 billion at a $67,000 bitcoin price.
• Binance also published the fund's wallet address and shared the latest transaction hash as SAFU shifts from a mix of crypto and stablecoins into a fully bitcoin-backed reserve.
• The exchange said it will rebalance the fund in the future if its value drops below $800 million due to price volatility, restoring it to the $1 billion target.

Coinbase shares slip as CEO Armstrong's stock sales top $500 million in nine months

Coinbase shares slipped 5.7% on Wednesday as data circulated by VanEck's Matthew Sigel showed that CEO Brian Armstrong has sold roughly $545.7 million worth of the stock over the past nine months.

• Based on Bloomberg pricing data, the transaction history showed Armstrong offloaded more than 1.5 million shares between April 2025 and January 2026.
• COIN closed at $153.20 on Wednesday and has traded between roughly $142 and $444 over the past 52 weeks, with the company set to report earnings on Thursday.
• The stock faces mixed analyst sentiment, with Goldman Sachs recently upgrading COIN to a buy on the exchange's growing mix of non-trading revenue, while JPMorgan cut its price target, citing lower trading volumes, softness in crypto prices, and decelerating growth in the stablecoin sector.

Trump-backed World Liberty Financial to roll out foreign exchange remittance service

Trump-linked crypto project World Liberty Financial plans to launch World Swap, a foreign exchange and remittance platform aimed at cutting the cost of cross-border transfers, Reuters reported.

• Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong, co-founder Zak Folkman positioned the product as a lower-fee alternative to traditional providers.
• The move expands the firm's footprint beyond its USD1-focused platform World Liberty Markets, which has logged $320 million in lending activity and more than $200 million borrowed within four weeks of launch.
• The remittance push lands amid heightened political scrutiny over the Trump family's crypto ventures, foreign investment ties, and a House probe into a reported UAE-linked stake in World Liberty Financial.

Israeli defense reservist, civilian indicted over alleged insider betting on Polymarket

Israeli prosecutors indicted an IDF reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military intelligence to place bets on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket.

• Authorities charged the pair with serious security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice following a joint investigation involving the Shin Bet internal security service, Israel Police, and the Defense Ministry.
• The case follows weeks of scrutiny over unusually accurate wagers tied to Israeli military operations and intensifies the broader debate over insider trading risks on decentralized prediction markets.

In the next 24 hours

• U.S. CPI inflation data are due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Est. MoM 0.3%; Core 0.3%. Est. YoY 2.5%; Core 2.5%.
• Consensus Hong Kong, Bitcoin Investor Week, and Cayman Crypto Week continue. EthBoulder gets underway.

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