William Blair cuts Coinbase forecasts but says crypto downturn nearing a bottom
Quick Take
- William Blair expects Coinbase’s earnings to bottom in the second half of 2026 before rebounding next year.
- Analysts say Base, derivatives, and prediction markets are expanding Coinbase’s revenue beyond spot trading.
William Blair lowered its revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase on Wednesday, citing weaker-than-expected crypto trading activity. Despite this, it reiterated an Outperform rating and argued that the crypto bear market is nearing a bottom as bitcoin prices stabilize and new revenue streams start to kick into gear.
The firm cut its 2026 and 2027 revenue estimates by 12% and 13%, respectively, and reduced adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 34% for both years. Analysts said they expect Wall Street to continue lowering expectations in the near term, but believe Coinbase's earnings should bottom out before the end of this year and then recover in 2027.
"We think investors should stay involved in Coinbase as spot crypto volume potentially bottoms alongside bitcoin and new revenue drivers emerge," analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury wrote.
William Blair expects total trading volume on Coinbase (COIN) to fall about 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding more than 32% in 2027. The firm argues that this cycle differs from the 2022 bear market due to the growth of spot bitcoin ETFs, greater institutional participation and more crypto-friendly regulations.
Beyond what it sees as a cyclical recovery in crypto trading, the firm pointed to Coinbase's expanding business mix as another reason to be optimistic.
Analysts highlighted retail derivatives and prediction markets as emerging revenue contributors, while arguing the company's Base Layer 2 network could become a major earnings driver through trading activity, sequencer fees and a potential future token launch. Jeffrey and Choudhury also said Base puts Coinbase in a position to benefit from the growing tokenized real-world asset market, which The Block estimates currently sits at over $22.5 billion.
Coinbase shares were up roughly 1% on the day to $162.63 in early Wednesday trading. The stock has fallen around 32% year-to-date, alongside bitcoin's (BTC) roughly 26% decline over the same period.
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