TD Cowen cuts Smarter Web Company price target 36% on revised bitcoin outlook

Investment bank TD Cowen lowered its price target on The Smarter Web Company PLC to £0.64 ($0.86) from £1.00 ($1.35), while reaffirming a Buy rating on the UK-based bitcoin treasury company.

Smarter Web shares traded at £0.287 ($0.39) on Monday morning, according to London Stock Exchange data. TD Cowen's £0.64 price target implies about 123% upside from that level.

In a note to clients, TD Cowen analysts led by Lance Vitanza said the revised price target incorporates bitcoin forecast assumptions published last month, as well as updated treasury activity and dilution projections.

Their valuation framework assigns £63 million to treasury operations and values projected year-end 2026 bitcoin holdings at £229 million. After factoring in projected net debt of £18 million, the analysts derived a target equity value of £274 million, equivalent to £0.64 per share based on 426 million fully diluted shares. 

The analysts also reiterated their broader investment thesis for Smarter Web, describing the company as a public bitcoin treasury company focused on accumulating bitcoin and increasing bitcoin holdings on a fully diluted per-share basis through equity, debt, and other financing tools. The company most recently disclosed holdings of 2,878 BTC.

"We believe the company has established itself as the clear leader among PBTCs operating in the UK and believe its GBP-denominated offerings create a distinct competitive advantage with respect to investors living in the UK and/or transacting primarily in pounds sterling," the analysts wrote in the note. 

TD Cowen expects the company to increase its bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share in a favorable bitcoin price environment and substantially outperform spot bitcoin ETPs. The firm's base case assumes bitcoin reaches approximately $140,000 by December 2026, up about 15% from the prior all-time high, with bitcoin acquisition returning gradually to the pace observed in fiscal 2025.

The analysts also pointed out that the appointment of Oliver Hewett as chief financial officer strengthens the company's financial and capital markets capabilities, citing his background in institutional investment banking, financial strategy, governance, regulatory compliance, and corporate finance.