Former Rep. George Santos agrees to pay $35,000 in CFTC settlement over Kalshi SOTU bet

Former expelled U.S. Rep. George Santos settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after the agency said he used trades on Kalshi to influence the outcome of a bet, generating more than $17,500 in profits.

On Friday, the CFTC said Santos engaged in manipulative trading when he traded on a bet on who would attend the State of the Union in February 2026. He was ordered to pay $35,000 as part of the settlement, and did not admit or deny the agency's findings.

The CFTC says that two weeks before the SOTU, Santos made public statements on whether he would attend, causing the price of the event contract to increase or decrease "significantly."

"For example, while holding a Yes position on his attendance, Santos posted on the X social media platform about what he should wear to the State of the Union," the CFTC said. "Within hours of the post, the price of the Yes position rose, after which Santos exited at a profit."

Santos also posted periodically about his journey to Washington, D.C., for the SOTU via plane and train, and made money on the back-and-forth of the trades, responding to his public statements.

"Santos acted willfully or, at the very least, recklessly," the CFTC said. "Santos traded in an event contract where he could influence the outcome of the underlying event and knowingly made misleading public statements and omissions about his activities in relation to the underlying event to influence the contract price for the benefit of his trading position."

As part of the settlement, Santos has to disgorge his profits and also agree to a cease and desist from violating CFTC rules in the futures as well as a three-year trading ban.

In a statement on Friday, Santos' counsel, Josephy W. Murray, said Santos cooperated with the CFTC and said the SOTU was the first time Santos had ever placed a bet on a prediction market. Murray said Santos booked hotel and airline reservations to Washington, D.C. because he thought he was attending the SOTU.

"After Mr. Santos' travel plans were repeatedly frustrated by the widely reported winter-weather disruptions along the East Coast, he realized that he would not be able to safely attend the address and then logically adopted a no position," Murray said. "Mr. Santos concealed neither his intention to attend nor his change of plans to not attend the SOTU, from anyone. There was absolutely no intent to deceive any person, nor intent to manipulate any market."

Santos was a congressman representing New York from Jan. 2023 to the end of that year after he was expelled following a House Ethics Committee investigation into misconduct involving ethics violations.