Elevated BTC and ETH options open interest signals cautious positioning ahead of Tuesday’s CPI data: analysts

Crypto markets rebounded into this week’s U.S. inflation print, with Bitcoin breaking above $122,000 over the weekend and Ether up 21% on the week to more than $4,300 as crypto’s performance tracked firmer risk sentiment in U.S. equities, with BTC–equity correlation strengthening since mid-July, according to QCP Capital.

The total crypto market capitalization rose to over $4.1 trillion after the moves, up 2% on Monday, The Block’s price page shows.

With July CPI due Tuesday, QCP said consensus points to headline inflation rising 10 basis points to 2.8% year-over-year. A softer surprise would likely cement optimistic expectations for a September rate cut, as odds for a Federal Reserve pivot are high. A hotter print, however, could stall the rally across risk assets and reaffirm macroeconomic angst from the central bank.

Onchain positioning reflects that potential fork in the road. QCP observed front-end BTC put demand around the $115,000–$118,000 strikes “to protect against a downside surprise,” even as short-call covering continues on the topside. The Block's data dashboard shows $43 billion in aggregated BTC options open interest, not far off July's $49 billion peak. Bearish hedging also sits above an air gap zone reported last week. QCP analysts expect front-end implied volatility to stay elevated into CPI, followed by compression unless BTC decisively clears resistance. 

Open interest in ETH options was also elevated and stands at $13.9 billion, the highest level year to date and just shy of the all-time high of $14.6 billion set in March 2024, according to The Block’s data dashboard.

On flows, the trading desk said institutional demand and U.S. spot ETF activity remain key watch items as BTC approaches prior highs. Crypto investment products logged $571 million in net inflows last week, boosted by Bitcoin and ETH uptrends from bullish Washington signals. The market’s ability to absorb recent “OG whale” sales without breaking trend supports a “structurally bullish” backdrop, the firm added.

While traders brace for this week’s inflation data, analysts still see BTC at higher prices by the end of the year. Wincent Senior Director Paul Howard reiterated a $150,000 Bitcoin target, citing previous post-halving cycle data.

“Historical analysis, with 2025 being the post-halving year when prices typically rally, indicates BTC can still move higher,” he told The Block. “So whilst some pundits expect to see some froth taken off the top here, I remain with my thesis that we can expect $150,000 before year end.” Howard’s bull case is $50,000 shy of predictions by Standard Chartered and Bitwise, which both believe BTC could reach $200,000 in late 2025.