Coinbase and Gemini face divided outlook as analysts weigh exchange expansions beyond crypto

Wall Street analysts are split on how quickly Coinbase (ticker COIN) and Gemini (GEMI) can translate expansions beyond spot crypto trading into stable growth.

In a note published Monday, William Blair reiterated an outperform rating on Coinbase, arguing that recent crypto market weakness masks longer-term upside as the company pushes into equities, derivatives, prediction markets, and payments infrastructure.

The firm said investors continue to undervalue Coinbase by viewing it narrowly as a retail trading venue rather than a core piece of crypto financial plumbing.

The rollout aligns with Coinbase’s longer-stated ambition to build a more comprehensive financial platform, spanning 24/7 equities trading, prediction markets, crypto futures, decentralized exchange access, and white-label stablecoins. While acknowledging softer near-term spot volumes, analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury said derivatives and non-trading revenue could be more durable drivers over time.

Rival exchanges, including Gemini, are also looking to diversify revenue streams. Last month, it launched a predictions market while October research from Mizuho Securities found that its growing spending card operations create a “flywheel effect" bringing roughly half of its cardholders onto the exchange. 

The William Blair note this week also struck a constructive tone on Gemini's crypto payments rival Circle and the broader stablecoin market, arguing that USDC commercialization is a matter of timing rather than viability, particularly as payments and enterprise settlement use cases expand.

Goldman Sachs echoed that longer-term view this week, upgrading Coinbase to a buy rating while warning that competition and rate sensitivity could keep margins under pressure in 2026. The bank said Coinbase’s growing mix of non-trading and infrastructure revenue offers some insulation from crypto market swings, even as execution remains a key risk.

Best or worst

Mizuho, however, offered a more mixed outlook on crypto exchanges overall.

In a separate industry survey of retail and institutional investors, the firm found that both groups favor fintech stocks over crypto in 2026, with views on crypto-native exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini split sharply between best- and worst-performer expectations.

Mizuho maintained a neutral rating on Coinbase, citing its strong correlation with bitcoin’s price and continued reliance on retail trading fees, even as it acknowledged upside from volatility, cost discipline, and USDC-linked interest income.

By contrast, the firm kept an outperform rating on Gemini, pointing to user growth, international expansion potential, and its all-in-one trading app, while flagging market volatility and regulatory risk.