Gemini stock projected for 25% upside driven by crypto reward card 'flywheel' and EU license

Analysts see Gemini Space Station (ticker GEMI) shares climbing between 20% to 25% from current levels as adoption of its crypto rewards card accelerates and a new Markets in Crypto-Assets license opens the door to European expansion.

GEMI, which went public last month, is trading around $25 according to The Block price data, and was given a $30 price target by Mizuho Securities in new research, implying medium-term upside tied to stronger user conversion and revenue growth.

The firm’s Gemini Credit Card has quickly become a central growth driver. Sign-ups have surged from about 8,000 in 2024 to nearly 31,000 by August 2025. The card lets users earn bitcoin, ether or other tokens as cashback on everyday purchases, with rewards deposited instantly into their exchange accounts.

Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said the product creates a “flywheel effect,” with roughly half of cardholders also becoming monthly exchange traders — a conversion rate the bank argues drives volumes and recurring engagement.

International markets represent a second pillar of growth. In August, Gemini secured licensing under the European Union’s MiCA framework enabling it to expand into staking, derivatives, and other regulated offerings across the bloc.

Coverage picked up this week as the IPO research blackout expired, with 11 analysts initiating on GEMI: six with buy ratings and five with holds. The average price target implies about 25% upside, stronger than peers such as Robinhood, Coinbase, and Blockchain.com, where targets sit below current levels.

Still, KBW struck a more cautious tone, saying that “while we acknowledge that Gemini’s growth profile is superior relative to the peer group, the company is expected to remain largely unprofitable throughout the forecast period.”