Bitwise seeks SEC nod for 2028 election prediction market ETFs as Wall Street pushes to wrap bets

Bitwise has filed a prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission outlining plans to launch exchange-traded funds that would invest in event contracts tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election, marking a new attempt to package prediction market wagers inside a traditional ETF wrapper.

The filing, submitted under the brand name “PredictionShares,” details funds that would hold event contracts whose value rises or falls depending on specific political outcomes. Such contracts are commonly traded on regulated prediction venues, where participants buy and sell shares representing the probability of real-world events.

GraniteShares and Roundhill have lodged similar filings, according to public SEC documents, suggesting asset managers are testing investor appetite for ETFs built around political and other event-driven markets.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote on X that the move is another signal of a growing “financialization and ETF-ization of everything” trend, adding that it is unlikely to be the last filing of its kind. His colleague, Eric Balchunas, described Roundhill’s proposals as potentially groundbreaking if approved, noting they could open the door to a broader range of event-linked products.

Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, said the recent “boatload of filings” would hold event contracts tied to election outcomes and allow investors to hedge portfolios based on how they expect markets to react to the 2028 race, framing the products as another step toward gamified finance.

Regulatory battle

Prediction markets function by allowing traders to buy and sell contracts tied to specific outcomes, such as whether a candidate will win an election or whether legislation will pass. Prices fluctuate based on perceived probabilities, creating a real-time gauge of market sentiment.

The ETF proposals land at a sensitive moment for the sector.

Earlier this month, Coinbase’s prediction markets offering drew fire from Nevada regulators over alleged unlicensed sports betting, with a company executive telling The Block the platform believes its event contracts fall under federal derivatives oversight rather than state gaming laws.

Previously, Polymarket sued Massachusetts over efforts to curb its operations, while Kalshi has fought state-level challenges, including securing a temporary block on a Tennessee order targeting its sports-related contracts. The latter has also expanded its Washington lobbying presence amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has since asserted exclusive federal authority over prediction markets in a court brief, escalating tensions with state regulators.