'Between supportive and restrictive forces': Bitcoin stalls near $64,000 as Fed rate-hike risk overshadows Iran ceasefire relief

Bitcoin traded near $64,200 on Monday, stuck in range-bound conditions as a hawkish Federal Reserve and a sixth consecutive week of spot exchange-traded fund outflows continue to cap any upside from easing geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last week, formally ending more than 100 days of conflict that had shuttered the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted a fifth of the world's oil flows.

At the time, the deal triggered an initial risk-on pop across markets. Indeed, bitcoin (BTC) briefly reached $66,230 the previous week, but the bounce gave way as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting dashed hopes of near-term rate cuts.

Warsh signaled a hawkish stance, and CME FedWatch now shows roughly a 36% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting, with markets pricing in at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The DXY also recovered to the 100.6–100.8 range on the back of the Fed's tone, a headwind that has historically weighed on bitcoin.

Following last week’s macro news cycle, spot bitcoin ETFs logged net outflows for a sixth straight week, The Block reported Monday, with the scale of outflows narrowing significantly from earlier in the month but still failing to flip positive.

U.S. spot ETFs recorded a record $6.35 billion in net outflows over the past 30 days, according to Galaxy Research and The Block's data.

"Institutional flows have yet to show a clear sign of returning," said Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com. "The fact that flows have not returned to a sustained net-inflow trend shows that fresh demand remains limited."

Options positioning signals exhaustion, not conviction

Beneath the surface, options market positioning tells a more nuanced story.

One-week implied volatility has retreated from 60% to 36%, and the 25-delta put skew has pulled back from extreme levels reached during the June selloff, suggesting the rush for downside protection has largely subsided, according to data tracked by The Block.

Realized volatility, however, has climbed above implied volatility — 1-month IV sits near 39% while realized volatility has risen above 42% — meaning bitcoin's actual price swings are outpacing what options markets currently price in.

The largest negative gamma cluster sits just below spot at $62,000, where roughly $1.8 billion in short gamma is concentrated. A sustained move lower could accelerate a retest of the $60,000 level.

Massabni placed bitcoin in a $60,000–$67,000 range for the near term, describing the market as "balanced between supportive and restrictive forces," with eased ETF selling and improved global risk sentiment on one side, against an unsupportive Fed and an absence of institutional confirmation on the other.

The Iran deal did lift global risk appetite and pushed crude oil prices to three-month lows, giving crypto markets some breathing room. But analysts who had been watching the June FOMC as the real macro test found that Warsh's pivot-resistant posture — driven in part by May inflation coming in at 4.2%, well above the Fed's 2% target — quickly overrode the geopolitical tailwind.

Last week, The Block reported bitcoin slipping below $64,000 as a hawkish Fed continued to overshadow signs of onchain repair. The $62,000 gamma wall remains the level to watch, per Massabni.