Bitcoin tops $65,000 after 'massive surprise' US jobs miss

Bitcoin rose above $65,000 on Friday after U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell in July, a print that analysts say sent traders scrambling to price out a September Federal Reserve rate hike.

The world's foremost cryptocurrency traded up nearly 2% on the day, according to The Block's price page, which tracked bitcoin (BTC) at around $65,200 on Aug. 7.

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000 in July against forecasts for an 80,000 gain, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised June's figure down to a 20,000 increase from 57,000.

The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%. "This is a massive surprise and could see the markets completely price out a hike in September," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. The dollar fell, and precious metals rose, he said, with futures moving as though weak data was good news for risk assets given the policy implications.

Rodda flagged the decline in the jobless rate as the report's most deceptive detail, a function of declining labor force participation and a separate survey rather than genuine labor market strength. He also raised a longer-term question about whether AI was beginning to leave its mark on hiring, with employers possibly substituting automation for workers.

A weak print collides with a hawkish Fed

The report lands on a Fed that, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has trained its attention almost entirely on inflation.

"Since Warsh took over as Chair, the focus has been squarely on inflation, and the employment side of the Fed's mandate has been barely discussed. That changes today," said Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares.

The July figures, coupled with June's disappointment and downward revisions, undermine the case of committee members pushing for higher rates, he said.

Nevertheless, not everyone expects the print to move Warsh. Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at decentralized trading provider Theo, argued that the chair has shown he will not be swayed by a single data point while an oil spike and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea keep the inflation picture messy.

Policy remains easier than inflation, and the labor market has justified it for some time, and a softer jobs number does not automatically close that gap, Ioppe stated. He added that risk assets, including bitcoin, retain medium-term support from continued Fed inaction, though the same geopolitical energy risk limits upside.

Why the move higher may have to wait

Some analysts insist that a soft print does not automatically clear the path to a clean rally.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, asserted that bitcoin is unlikely to decouple from the broader reaction, with a sharp downside surprise capable of triggering a flight to safety before optimism takes hold.

"Any durable move higher is likely only after volatility has flushed weaker positioning," Lee said.

Whether it holds will still depend on subsequent inflation data, Fed communication and broader liquidity conditions, and the print sets the tone for Jackson Hole messaging and the September decision, he added.

Bitcoin eyes a retest as ether outperforms

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $65,000 on Friday before recovering after the data release.

The crypto now looks poised to retest $66,000, said Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares. "ETH is showing strong relative strength of its own, angling to reclaim the key $2k resistance level," Mena said.

Mena noted that ether's (ETH) best month since August 2025 returned 18.5% and drew more than $350 million in ETF inflows, outpacing equities as it beat the S&P 500 by 18.3 percentage points and the Nasdaq-100 by 25 percentage points.

Mena sees the ETH-BTC ratio bottoming after a year-long downtrend, with seasonality favoring a strong second half. Bitcoin has returned an average of 5.8% in the third quarter and 66.7% in the fourth quarter, he said, and a push toward $100,000 by year-end looks achievable so long as macro data remains neutral.