Auguring the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections

Cryptocurrency • November 6, 2018, 12:40PM EST
Published 1 hour earlier on
UPDATED: October 7, 2019, 2:35AM EDT
Rob Crandall / Shutterstock

U.S. elections are no strangers to prediction markets. Companies like PredictIt enable users and potential voters to take financial bets on politicians and the outcomes of political events. However, because traditional predictions markets are highly regulated, they are limited by the rules imposed on them. As an example, PredicIt limits the number of traders for a particular contract at 5,000 and limits the total investments made by a single trader on a particular contract at $850. 

[related id =1 ]Augur, a decentralized prediction market, aims to remove all the limitations of traditional centralized prediction markets. In the midst of the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections, The Block will run an experiment comparing the prediction markets results of PredictIt and Augur and the opinion poll analyses of FiveThirtyEight. We will update this post every hour until the end of the elections to see just how accurate these prediction markets are. The Block will monitor the two most active midterm-themed markets on Augur:

  1. Which party will control the House after 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?
  2. Which party will control the Senate after 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?

 

 

Latest Results

11:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 95% Democrats
  • Senate control: 88% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

10:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 85% Democrats
  • Senate control: 88% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

9:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 70% Democrats
  • Senate control: 88% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

8:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 90% Democrats
  • Senate control: 88% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

7:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 74% Democrats
  • Senate control: 84% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

6:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 80% Democrats
  • Senate control: 84% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

THE SCOOP

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5:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 69% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

4:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 68% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

3:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 75% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

2:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 75% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

1:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 74% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

12:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 74% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:

11:00AM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 74% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

PredictIt:

FiveThirtyEight:


© 2023 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

About Author

Steven Zheng is a researcher for The Block. He joined The Block in August 2018. Steven graduated from St. John’s University with a degree in economics. Previously, he covered blockchain and crypto at Radicle, a startup analytics firm. He also had brief stints at Cheddar, a media startup, and Bowery Capital, a venture capital firm. He owns bitcoin. Follow Steven on Twitter at: @Dogetoshi

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