Bitcoin's price could be boosted by supply dynamics in 2024, Grayscale says

Bitcoin supply dynamics may result in a reduced liquid supply early next year, coinciding with the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETF filings, Grayscale Investments said Friday in a research report, adding that the dynamic could have a positive impact on the valuation of the digital asset.

"Bitcoin’s supply is relatively tight ahead of potential investor inflows into spot ETF products in the U.S.," Grayscale said, noting that a significant portion of bitcoin is held by entities that may be slow to sell into an appreciated market. The asset manager is one of more than a dozen firms currently seeking approval for a spot bitcoin product from the Securities and Exchange Commission.  

The report also said that next year’s bitcoin halving could also limit the growth of new BTC supply. "This combination of inelastic bitcoin supply and potential new investor inflows should be positive for valuations, in our view," Grayscale said. 

Risk of a 'hard landing' for the US economy

However, Grayscale said that there are conditions that could counter the thesis that positive price appreciation for bitcoin in 2024 is assured. These include a possible "hard landing" for the U.S. economy next year. The report said that such an outcome could see "a resumption of Fed rate increases or fewer-than-expected Fed rate cuts, and, or a long delay in regulatory approval of a spot bitcoin ETF for the U.S. market."

These risk could significantly hold back the ongoing crypto recovery, at least over the near-term, Grayscale said.

The largest digital asset by market capitalization was changing hands for $38,580 at 11:50 p.m. ET, up almost 3% in the past 24 hours, according to The Block data.