Are we early?
It's a question that participants in the crypto market ponder during each cycle, as each cycle brings its own indicators signaling the end. I think the biggest top signal to me personally was when I was at a barbershop in Los Angeles and one barber was explaining why he was moving all of his coins from Coinbase to an exchange I had never heard of.
Indeed, rumblings of crypto in the regular world always seems like a good indication of market froth. Right now, crypto seems like much of an afterthought to regular people, and as my friend Jim Greco put it in a recent text, this latest rally has so far made little noise.
"If you weren't in crypto, you wouldn't know bitcoin hit $41k."
Retail still seems far from as interested as they were at the last peak top. And the data points to this. Coinbase ranking in the App Store, which is The Block's Steven Zheng's favorite top indicator, has been basically flat since September.
Rally fueled by institutional players
Sure you might counter that volumes have increased, but only slightly. The daily exchange volume seven day moving average stood at $27 billion on Dec. 4, which is below the year's high of $47 billion. Meanwhile, bitcoin has appreciated by 153%.
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