Bitcoin options traders bet on a bullish September price move above $100,000, analysts say

Quick Take

  • Bitcoin derivatives traders are betting on a bullish price move above the $100,000 mark in September, according to analysts.
  • However, bitcoin whales are continuing to send assets to exchanges — suggesting potential short-term sell pressure — analysts added.
Analysts are observing bullish conditions in the bitcoin options market following the digital asset's bounce back on Friday — an uptick sustained throughout the weekend and into early week trading.
 
QCP Capital analysts say bitcoin risk reversals have gone positive, with calls now more expensive than puts. This suggests a bullish sentiment among investors, as they are willing to pay more for options that benefit from a rise in bitcoin than options that protect against a decline in price.
 
"We are seeing renewed demand for bitcoin September calls at a strike price of $75,000 and also for $100,000 calls," QCP Capital analysts added.
 
The observation from the QCP Capital report corresponds with data from the Deribit derivatives exchange. According to its data, the current top volume by instrument in the options market is for bitcoin calls with a strike price of $110,000 for the end-of-September expiry.
 

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Bitcoin BTC -2.70% calls at a strike price of $110,000 are the current top volume by instrument on Deribit. Image: Deribit.

However, according to Stocklytics analyst Neil Roarty, for bitcoin to achieve a price point above the $100,000 mark, "it will have to show even greater resilience in the face of increasing regulatory scrutiny and wider political and economic uncertainty."

Whales sending assets to exchanges

Despite the optimism in the derivatives market, Bitfinex analysts have observed activity among bitcoin whales that could signal further sell pressure in the short-term.

According to this week's Bitfinex Alpha report, the bitcoin exchange whale ratio suggests an increased potential for sell pressure. This cohort of investors has been observed sending more of the digital asset to exchanges, raising the possibility that they might be preparing to sell.

"That said, historically, most of the aggressive selling has come from the more price-sensitive short-term holders, that is those who have owned bitcoin for 155 days or less. For this group, the realized price is $58,700, and in current markets this seems to be acting as an important support level," the report added.

Bitcoin is holding above the $63,000 mark, having posted a slight decline of over 1% in the past 24 hours to trade at $63,551 at 8:11 a.m. ET, according to The Block’s Price Page. The GM 30 Index, representing a selection of the top 30 cryptocurrencies, decreased 1.32% to 137.37 in the same period.

The price of bitcoin has held above the $63,000 mark over the past 24 hours. Image: The Block.


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© 2023 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

About Author

Brian McGleenon is a UK-based markets reporter for The Block. He has worked as a financial journalist and producer for multiple news outlets over the years, such as Fuji Television, The Independent, Yahoo Finance, The Evening Standard, and The Daily Express. Brian is also a screenwriter and producer with one feature film produced and one in development with Northern Ireland Screen. Apart from web3 and cryptocurrency developments, he is also interested in geopolitics, environmental issues, artificial intelligence, and longevity research. Get in touch via email [email protected].

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