Galaxy Digital sees up to $7.5 billion flowing into ETH ETFs within first five months

Quick Take

  • Ethereum ETFs could conservatively see 20% of the inflows as bitcoin ETFs within the first five months, Galaxy Vice President of Research Charles Yu wrote.
  • These funds may have a greater market impact on the price of ETH due to several structural differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • Demand will likely be driven by independent investment advisors and broker-dealer platforms, which will help legitimize the asset class.

Galaxy Digital said exchange-traded funds tracking Ethereum’s native token, ETH, could become a multi-billion market opportunity soon after approval.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently changed course to accelerate the approval of these funds, with some analysts predicting the first ETH ETFs approvals could come in next week. The SEC has yet to approve the crucial S-1 filings needed for the funds to hit the market.

In a Wednesday report, Galaxy Vice President of Research Charles Yu said that in the first five months of trading, ETH ETFs could conservatively see 20% or upwards of 50% of the inflows as bitcoin ETFs, which have been a surprising hit since a suite of funds launched in January.

Bitcoin ETFs received $15.1 billion in net inflows between launch and June 15, Yu wrote. If his prediction is correct, similar ether-based funds could see between $3 billion and $7.5 billion in inflows. This is more or less in line with Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan's prediction that U.S. spot ETH ETFs could attract $15 billion worth of net inflows in their first 18 months.

“The Bitcoin ETFs have been live for about just under 6 months and can serve as a useful foundation to examine the likely reception of Ethereum spot-ETFs,” Yu wrote in the report. In particular, he said bitcoin ETFs are at least “partially responsible” for bitcoin’s price appreciation this year.

“We think the potential launch of spot ether ETFs should have a largely positive impact for market adoption of Ethereum and the broader crypto market,” Yu added, noting that ETFs will help legitimize ETH in the eyes of institutional investors, policymakers, and regulators. Demand will likely be driven by independent investment advisors and broker-dealer platforms, he said.

Not all roses

Nine issuers are vying to launch 10 spot market ETH ETFs in the U.S., including well-established firms like BlackRock, Fidelity and VanEck. All three firms have also launched spot bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT trust accounting for the majority of bitcoin inflows into the funds.

Grayscale, a unit of Digital Currency Group, is also looking to convert its closed-end Ethereum trust into an ETF, similar to how it rolled over the mammoth Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in January. GBTC has seen at least $17.5 billion in outflows from its comparatively high-fee fund, which many market commentators, including Yu, say has depressed bitcoin’s price.

Yu likewise thinks 319,000 ETH (worth $1.1 billion) could flow out from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust per month, acting as an “overhang” on the net ETF inflows.

The SEC has also put stipulations on the proposed funds that may limit investor interest, like the inability for firms to stake the underlying ether to earn yield, Yu said.

That said, the eventual launch of ETFs may have a greater market impact on the price of ETH due to several structural differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum. This includes the amount of ETH locked up in staking programs, lower supply on exchanges, and lower net emissions.


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About Author

Daniel Kuhn is a Senior Journalist and Editor at The Block, where he covers the crypto industry with a particular focus on tech. He previously served as deputy managing editor of opinion/features at CoinDesk. He first appeared in print in Financial Planning, a trade publication magazine. Before journalism, he studied philosophy as an undergrad, English literature in graduate school and business and economic reporting at an NYU professional program. You can connect with him on Twitter and Telegram @danielgkuhn or find him on Urbit as ~dorrys-lonreb.

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