Polymarket traders think there is a more than 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in the Fed’s next rate decision

Polymarket traders are betting that the upcoming Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2024, will decrease the federal funds rate.

This sentiment is reflected in a bet with a $10.9 million volume, where 77% odds indicate a 25 basis point cut as the most likely outcome, 21% chances of a 50 basis point reduction, and merely 3% odds there will be no rate cut.

Several factors drive expectations for a rate decrease: a decline in inflation, which bolsters the case for lowering rates, and a weakening job market, which indicates the need for more supportive economic measures.

A Polymarket bet on interest rate changes to be made by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

These observations align with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate to balance inflation control with economic growth. While the consensus among analysts points to a 25 basis point cut, a bigger reduction could be on the table if economic conditions worsen markedly.

Analysts have forecasted a decline in Bitcoin price volatility. They anticipate that market participants are preparing for the likely commencement of a rate-cutting cycle by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month.

Polymarket has become increasingly important in the crypto landscape over the past year. Traders bet on the platform to predict various outcomes, leveraging crypto tokens to buy and sell shares. This growth in activity is evident from the platform’s cumulative volume, which jumped from $1 billion in July to $1.52 billion by the end of August.

This article has been updated for clarity.