JPMorgan maintains $196 price target for Coinbase despite Q3 shortfall

JPMorgan analysts have retained their neutral rating for Coinbase and set a December 2025 price target of $196, despite the company reporting third-quarter results that fell short of expectations.

"Although overall results fell short of expectations, we see Coinbase continuing to execute in emerging areas of its business, welcoming potential avenues of future growth. We continue to be believers in the crypto-ecosystem and see Coinbase as a leading intermediary, so we maintain our Neutral rating and Dec-2025 price target of $196," JPMorgan analysts Kenneth B. Worthington, Michael Cho, Alexander Bernstein, and Madeline Daleiden wrote in a note on Friday.

On Wednesday, Coinbase released its third-quarter results that showed net income was $75 million, missing the expected $112.2 million target surveyed by Bloomberg among analysts. 

While the company’s net revenue, net income and adjusted EBITDA were up year-on-year as crypto prices were at lower levels last year, some of its key earnings figures declined compared to the previous quarter. For example, it registered a net revenue of $1.13 billion in the third quarter, down from $1.38 billion in the last quarter.

Coinbase continues to execute on its longer-term plans

Despite Coinbase's disappointing results, the analysts said the crypto exchange executed well on its plans to make crypto more of a utility via Base, stablecoins, and wallets, pursue regulatory clarity, and remain profitable across all markets.

"Base continues to be a leading layer 2 with roughly over $2.7 billion in TVL fostering scalability for lower and cheaper transaction fees," they added.

The analysts also commended Coinbase's cost-cutting measures, which they believe have resulted in a more sustainable business model. They remain optimistic about the crypto landscape, especially in light of a political environment in the U.S. that is becoming increasingly favorable towards cryptocurrency regulation.

Coinbase also announced a share buyback program alongside its latest earnings results, as it further shows confidence in the company’s operations. The crypto exchange said its board of directors has authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program, adding that the timing and amount of any repurchases will depend on market conditions.

JPMorgan's $196 price target is derived from a "normalized earnings" approach, which assumes active trading in the crypto market. JPMorgan estimates Coinbase will generate annual earnings of approximately $4.91 per share and applies a 40x earnings multiple — consistent with valuations for innovative financial firms.

As of the time of writing, Coinbase shares are priced at $180.63, reflecting a 0.77% increase in the past 24 hours. The stock traded above the $200 level heading into Wednesday afternoon's release.