US presidential winner prediction market crosses $3 billion on Polymarket a day before the election
Quick Take
- Polymarket’s prediction market for the 2024 U.S. presidential election winner hit $3.13 billion on Nov. 4 — one day before the election.
- Republican candidate Donald Trump amassed $1.2 billion in betting volume, while Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris accrued $782.5 million.
One day before the United States presidential election on Nov. 5, the prediction market for its winner surpassed $3 billion on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket.
The market's total betting volume reached $3.13 billion, with Republican candidate Donald Trump amassing $1.2 billion in betting volume, Polymarket shows as of 12:15 p.m. ET (17:15 UTC) on Nov. 4. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has $782.5 million in betting volume. The platform's winning odds for Trump and Harris are 56.3% and 43.8% respectively, with Trump's odds falling more than 10% over the weekend.
The same prediction market crossed $1 billion on Sept. 24 and surpassed $2 billion on Oct. 17.
The 2024 presidential election largely contributed to Polymarket's growth over the past few months. The platform's month-over-month trading volume jumped 368% between September and October, The Block's Data Dashboard shows. October brought in $2.5 billion in monthly trading volume and a record-high number of active traders at nearly 235,300.
Following increased user interest in prediction markets, Robinhood Derivatives launched event contracts in late October, which allow individuals to bet on the 2024 U.S. presidential election results.
Last Friday, Polymarket clarified how and when the winning market will pay out. The market will resolve when the AP, Fox News and NBC News all call the race for the same candidate.
"In the unlikely event there is no consensus by January 20, 2025 (inauguration day), the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated," Polymarket said in a post on X.
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