Donald Trump’s election victory odds surge to 99% on Polymarket
Quick Take
- The former U.S. president’s chance of winning the 2024 election soared to 99% on Polymarket’s prediction market.
- So far, Trump has 246 electoral votes against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 210.
Traders on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket forecast Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.
The platform’s now $3.5 billion volume bet on the election winner gives Trump 99% winning odds against Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris’s 1%. While Trump’s winning chance stood at 58% as of 7 p.m. Tuesday, the figure skyrocketed as the U.S. commenced vote counting.
According to AP News, Trump maintains the lead — the former president now has 247 electoral votes against Harris, who has 214 in the race to reach 270 votes.
“This Presidential market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate,” Polymarket noted. “In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.”
The Republican candidate’s odds of winning the popular vote on Polymarket also ended up going to 100% from merely around 28% earlier today. If Trump wins the popular vote as well as the electoral, it would be the first time since 2004 that the Republican Party won both, according to The Conversation.
Initially a crypto skeptic, Trump became a proponent of the cryptocurrency sector and endorsed various areas of the industry throughout the election campaign. While Harris had also commented in support of blockchain and crypto, Trump’s win is considered more bullish for the industry’s future.
As more anticipate Trump’s victory, the crypto market showed strong gains over the past day. Bitcoin broke its all-time high to a new record of $75,011, according to CoinMarketCap data. Ether, Solana and other altcoins also saw strong growth, while Dogecoin, endorsed by Trump supporter Elon Musk, gained 26.64% in the past 24 hours, The Block’s crypto price page showed.
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