Polymarket predicts 55% chance Trump will create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve during his first 100 days

Quick Take

  • As Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, Polymarket shows a 55% likelihood of him signing an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days of his presidency.
  • An analyst suggested the potential implementation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still not fully priced into the market, despite bitcoin touching a high of over $109,000 in the past 24 hours.

Ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States later today, Polymarket’s decentralized prediction platform shows fluctuating expectations regarding cryptocurrency-related executive orders. The platform reveals that the probability of Trump signing an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) within his first 100 days has increased from 44% to 55% in the past 24 hours.

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) concept involves the U.S. government acquiring and holding bitcoin as a strategic asset, similar to the way gold has traditionally been used as a reserve.

Polymarket odds of Trump signing off on a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in his first 100 days in office have risen to 55%. Image: Polymarket.

Bitwise Head of Research Europe André Dragosch suggested that the potential implementation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still not fully priced into the market, despite bitcoin touching a high of over $109,000 in the past 24 hours.

"In the medium to long term, we could see a price pattern similar to the U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading launch, where the market was not only heading higher in anticipation of that trading launch but also after net inflows continued to push the market higher," Dragosch told The Block.

Additionally, Polymarket shows that the probability of the incoming president signing at least one cryptocurrency-related executive order on his first day in office has decreased from over 50% to 37% in the past 24 hours.
The chances of Donald Trump signing a cryptocurrency executive order on day one. Image: Polymarket.

According to Senior Director at Wincent Paul Howard, regarding the likelihood of Trump signing cryptocurrency-related executive orders, "the consensus on polymarket would be there is some wait and see time to digest."

Howard further added, "A litmus test of the potential for Trump Crypto EO would be to see Trump honor his promise on Ross Ulbricht, which would further back up what we saw as sincere interest in the market from the incoming president."

Polymarket price predictions

Polymarket cryptocurrency price predictions indicate a 40% chance that bitcoin will hit $120,000 by the end of January. As for altcoins, the platform shows a 46% probability that Solana surpasses $300 by the end of the month, a 22% chance of Ethereum breaking the $4,000 psychological barrier, and a 56% likelihood of XRP surpassing $3.20 within the next week.

As Trump prepares to take office, analysts are closely watching the impact of his cryptocurrency policies. According to QCP Capital, institutional investors eagerly await clarity on the administration’s approach to crypto.

“The global ripple effects of a clear U.S. 'green light' for crypto adoption have yet to fully materialize,” the analysts said.

Trump’s first day in office is expected to see the signing of over 100 executive orders, which will include not only cryptocurrency-related directives but also initiatives to expand artificial intelligence programs, establish the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), and declassify records surrounding the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy.


Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

About Author

Brian McGleenon is a UK-based markets reporter for The Block. He has worked as a financial journalist and producer for multiple news outlets over the years, such as Fuji Television, The Independent, Yahoo Finance, The Evening Standard, and The Daily Express. Brian is also a screenwriter and producer with one feature film produced and one in development with Northern Ireland Screen. Apart from web3 and cryptocurrency developments, he is also interested in geopolitics, environmental issues, artificial intelligence, and longevity research. Get in touch via email [email protected].

Editor

To contact the editor of this story:
Jason Shubnell at
[email protected]

WHO WE ARE

The Block is a news provider that strives to be the first and final word on digital assets news, research, and data.

+ Follow us on Google News
Connect with the block on