Copper says potential Trump scrutiny of US gold reserves could drive bitcoin inflows
Quick Take
- A Copper analyst suggests that a reported plan to audit Fort Knox’s gold reserves could lead to increased scrutiny of gold holdings, potentially driving investors toward bitcoin.
- He noted that if gold ETFs cannot verify full backing, they might trade at a discount — causing a global liquidity drain and prompting reallocations into digital assets.
President Donald Trump's reported plans to audit Fort Knox's gold reserves could lead to increased scrutiny of gold holdings, potentially driving investors toward bitcoin, Copper Head of Research Fadi Aboualfa told The Block. He noted that if gold ETFs cannot verify full backing, they might trade at a discount, causing a global liquidity drain and prompting reallocations into digital assets.
"A time of increased scrutiny on underlying gold stocks could see interesting knock-on effects for digital assets," Aboualfa said. "If gold ETFs fail to prove 100% holdings, they could begin trading at a discount, potentially triggering a global liquidity drain." Aboualfa said in such a scenario, gold outflows may translate into bitcoin inflows at reduced prices.
"The new administration’s push to audit gold reserves highlights a broader demand for transparency — something digital assets can provide," Aboualfa said. "It is no surprise, then, that momentum behind the concept of a bitcoin strategic reserve is growing."
However, RedStone COO Marcin Kazmierczak said he wouldn’t go as far as saying all this potential net-new capital will directly flow into digital assets, as these asset classes still have a different historical risk profile that most traditional institutions focus on. He nevertheless told The Block that "it definitely supports bitcoin’s narrative as a digital store of value, and some form of discount is quite plausible."
"If there were ever a discrepancy in the gold reserves at Fort Knox, it wouldn’t be surprising to see investors turn to bitcoin as a hedge against fiat uncertainty," Nansen Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard told The Block. "It’s often called 'digital gold' for a reason its scarcity is built-in, and everything is trackable onchain, and for some, that kind of transparency might feel like a safer bet than wondering whether gold is really sitting in a vault somewhere."
In terms of a proposed strategic bitcoin reserve, Aboualfa noted that — although the U.S. Treasury’s gold-buying operations are minimal and a radical shift in their approach to bitcoin seems unlikely — there are still practical first steps that could be taken to implement an SBR. "Even if the U.S. Treasury stops selling seized bitcoin in cases where there are no identifiable victims to compensate, we would see the beginnings of a bitcoin strategic reserve built from already confiscated assets," he said.
Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev suggests that President Donald Trump's proposal to audit Fort Knox extends beyond mere verification, saying that it is an unusual political maneuver that could significantly influence investor sentiment. "The U.S. gold reserves have not undergone a full independent audit since the 1950s," Kalchev told The Block. "Any rotation of capital from precious metals to digital assets would serve as a substantial tailwind for price appreciation, especially for bitcoin."
Gold supply disruptions bring counterparty risks
Aboualfa pointed out how recent concerns over the available supply of gold began to surface as increasing volumes of the precious metal moved from London to the U.S. amid speculation that President Donald Trump may reprice the country’s gold holdings to market value.
According to The Times, recent discussions have emerged regarding the potential revaluation of the United States' gold reserves to reflect current market prices. Currently, these reserves are valued at an outdated price of $42.22 per ounce, a figure established during the Bretton Woods era. With gold prices now approaching $3,000 per ounce, adjusting the valuation could theoretically increase the Treasury's reserves from approximately $11 billion to over $750 billion.
Aboualfa added that amid reports of U.S. banks shifting gold bars from London to New York, counterparty risk has now grown exponentially, "with clearing banks scrambling to borrow more gold but struggling to find supply."
"With deliveries facing massive delays, fears are mounting that a price dislocation could emerge between spot markets and ETFs holding 'unallocated' gold on their books," Aboualfa said.
He added that while a full-blown gold supply squeeze has yet to materialize, markets are already pricing in the possibility that it could happen. "If such a scenario unfolds, global liquidity could face significant disruptions — after all, the paper gold market is 133 times the size of the physical supply," Aboualfa said. "This could also create an intriguing, albeit volatile, situation for bitcoin."
Kalchev pointed out that gold has been on a strong upward trajectory, recently reaching $2,954 per ounce, nearing the $3,000 threshold. "This rally is fueled by central bank accumulation, economic uncertainty, and new U.S. tariffs, whilst bitcoin has also gained, as investors continue to diversify across asset classes," he said.
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