Bernstein sets $310 price target for Coinbase shares, says crypto market cycle is 'still in early stages'

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have initiated coverage for Coinbase with an outperform rating, setting a price target of $310 for its stock — 69% to the upside.

While critics are concerned about Coinbase's increasing competition and fee pressure, they overlook its total addressable market expansion due to the re-shoring of global crypto markets to the U.S., the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in a Tuesday note to clients, describing it as the "great American homecoming."

Coinbase is the largest U.S. crypto exchange with around 66% market share, over $400 billion in assets and approximately 10 million active users, the analysts noted. With the Trump Administration’s aspiration to make America the "crypto capital of the world," including a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, bank adoption of digital assets and stablecoin and market structure regulations, Coinbase remains the dominant platform to "ride the tailwinds," they said.

Acknowledging that regulatory clarity would also bring more competition from fintechs, brokers and banks, the analysts argued a strong bull market and rising U.S. onshore dominance would more than offset any competitive market share and pricing pressures, also noting the Securities and Exchange Commission's recent enforcement case withdrawal against Coinbase and other major industry players.

Bernstein projects a 34% compound annual growth rate for Coinbase trading revenues by the end of 2026 despite anticipating a marginal U.S. market share decline to 60% over two years and a 20% retail price premium reduction to maintain dominance. The analysts also pointed toward Coinbase's range of other services, such as crypto staking yields, custody services and Ethereum Layer 2 network Base, projecting a 31% CAGR for its non-trading revenues during the same period and 33% overall.

Coinbase projected revenue growth from 2024 to 2026. Image: Bernstein.

Bernstein's $310 price target for Coinbase shares is based on a 21 times multiple of its expected earnings per share by the end of 2026. COIN closed up 3.2% at $188.96 on Monday, according to The Block's Coinbase Price page. However, the stock is down 26% in 2025 and 16% over the past year.

Crypto market cycle 'still in its early stages'

With bitcoin falling around 30% from its Inauguration Day all-time high above $109,000, altcoins seeing much sharper corrections and crypto-related stocks also impacted by the negative sentiment, many have suggested that prices may have already peaked and a new bear market is underway.

However, the Bernstein analysts argue the current cycle is "still in its early stages," with the backdrop of the most pro-crypto U.S. government enabling it to transition from a speculative asset class to utility-based digital capital markets.

"We remain convinced, the ~$100,000 bitcoin price level is not the cycle top and the bitcoin market has multiple legs to run further," Chhugani wrote — citing institutional exchange-traded fund flows, corporate flows led by companies such as Strategy and potential sovereign flows following the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the U.S.

"We expect bitcoin to touch a $200,000 cycle peak towards 2025-end," Chhugani added. "If 2025 markets remain jittery on macro and Trump disruption risk, we may see a delay in achieving our bitcoin cycle highs and we may see a potential elongated bitcoin bull cycle into 2026."

Bernstein expects real-world asset tokenization and stablecoins to be the leading use case under a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment — two further major revenue drivers for exchanges like Coinbase, the analysts concluded.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the equities securities of Coinbase.