Rep. Torres targets prediction market 'insider trading' after trader nets $400K on Maduro's capture: report

Rep. Ritchie Torres will introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, targeting potential insider trading on prediction platforms, according to Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman on Saturday.

The bill would reportedly bar federal elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they possess or could reasonably obtain material nonpublic information through their official duties.

A spokesman for Congressman Torres said the bill has been "in the works for a bit," but the news of the Venezuela bet underscored the urgency of "introducing the bill as soon as possible." The bill does not currently have any co-sponsors, according to the spokesman, but Torres hopes to gain a broader coalition of support in the coming weeks.

In the replies to Sherman's post, Kalshi's press relations X account noted that trading on material non-public information by insiders or decision-makers is prohibited under that prediction market's rulebook. 

The announcement comes hours after President Trump disclosed that U.S. forces had taken Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro into custody following overnight military strikes on Caracas. A Polymarket account created in late December became the focal point of online speculation. The account made only four predictions—all related to U.S. intervention in Venezuela—and invested approximately $32,500 betting Maduro would be "out" by January 31, purchasing shares at around 7 cents when implied probability sat in the low single digits, according to Axios.

After Maduro's capture was confirmed Saturday morning, those shares resolved near $1 each, yielding a profit exceeding $400,000 for a return of more than 1,200% in less than 24 hours. The market for Maduro's removal began climbing shortly before 10 p.m. ET Friday, hours before Trump's announcement, the Wall Street Journal reported.

One Polymarket trader claimed on X to have made $80,000 betting on Maduro's capture after they noticed increased orders from Domino's Pizza locations surrounding the Pentagon, often claimed to be a proxy for increased staffing and late-night activity by the nation's military forces. 

Donald Trump Jr. maintains advisory roles at both major platforms—serving as a strategic advisor to Kalshi since January 2025 and joining Polymarket's advisory board in August after his VC firm made an eight-figure investment.

Polymarket could not be reached for comment. 

Updated at 10:30 a.m. ET with details from Rep. Torres' office.