Nasdaq seeks SEC approval for prediction-style binary options tied to flagship 100 index: Bloomberg

Nasdaq has filed for regulatory approval to introduce binary yes-or-no options tied to its flagship 100 index, Bloomberg reported Monday, marking the exchange operator’s first formal step into products that resemble prediction markets.

The proposal submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly outlines a new class of contracts, referred to as "Outcome Related Options," tied to both the Nasdaq 100 Index and its micro counterpart. The instruments would trade between $0.01 and $1, with prices drifting toward either end of the range depending on how traders view the outcome.

The proposed offering mirrors the probability-based format common on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where contracts typically settle at $1 if correct and expire worthless if not.

If approved, the contracts would be listed as securities options under SEC oversight, distinguishing them from many existing event-style contracts, which typically fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reached roughly $18.4 billion in February, a sixth consecutive record, according to The Block’s data dashboard. January had previously set a high just above $17 billion.

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Other exchanges are also positioning around the trend. Cboe Global Markets has said it is exploring a revival of “all-or-nothing” binary options tied to financial benchmarks, while CME Group is expanding crypto derivatives access as demand for round-the-clock trading grows.

The filing also lands as regulators sharpen their focus on the space. Earlier this month, SEC Chair Paul Atkins described prediction markets as a “huge issue,” citing potential overlap between the SEC and CFTC.