Iran's crypto volume plunges 80% but remains structurally sound: TRM Labs

Iran's cryptocurrency ecosystem remains structurally sound despite contracting sharply following U.S. and Israeli military strikes, according to a new report by TRM Labs.

In a Monday blog post, the blockchain analytics firm wrote that transaction volume on Iranian exchanges fell by roughly 80% between Feb. 27 and March 1, according to TRM data — a collapse the firm attributes primarily to the country's internet restrictions following the initiation of US-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. 

Despite the hostile environment, TRM said major domestic exchanges remain operational in a "risk-managed state," with temporarily suspended or batched withdrawals, reduced market depth, and issued risk guidance to users. 

Iran's central bank directed several major platforms — including Nobitex, Wallex, and Tabdeal — to temporarily suspend trading of the USDT-toman pair, the primary bridge between crypto and the domestic fiat currency. When trading resumed, thin order books and brief price dislocations signaled impaired liquidity, TRM said.

Capital flight

While Nobitex, Iran's largest exchange, recorded roughly $3 million more in combined inflows and outflows after the strikes began, TRM noted that these flows were "not necessarily outliers in the context of routine operations."

This interpretation deviates from an earlier analysis by Elliptic, which reported that outflows on Nobitex spiked 700% to nearly $3 million following the U.S.- and Israeli-led attacks. "The surge in crypto asset outflows last Saturday potentially represents capital flight from Iran," Elliptic CEO Tom Robinson wrote in a report on Monday.

TRM noted that recent transaction volume data is consistent with "mechanical access limitations" rather than a collapse in market infrastructure, adding that it "cautions against drawing conclusions regarding capital flight at this time."

The findings follow U.S. and Israeli forces' coordinated strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, which killed the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The geopolitical backdrop is still unstable. Iran's top national security official said Tehran will not negotiate with the U.S., despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying he has agreed to talk with the country's leaders.