Kalshi and Polymarket each exploring fundraising at $20 billion valuations, double previous rounds: WSJ

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are each in early discussions with potential backers about raising money at valuations near $20 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday. The talks are preliminary and may not result in deals.

If completed at those levels, the rounds would roughly double both companies' most recent valuations. Kalshi raised $1 billion in December at an $11 billion valuation, led by Sequoia and CapitalG with participation from Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, and others. Polymarket was valued at about $9 billion in October after NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest up to $2 billion.

Explosive growth

The valuation ambitions reflect a year of extraordinary growth for both platforms. Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached roughly $18.3 billion in February, according to The Block's data dashboard, up from under $2 billion combined as recently as August 2025.

Kalshi has crossed a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate, with some estimates placing it closer to $1.5 billion, according to the WSJ. The CFTC-regulated platform has consistently led Polymarket in monthly volume since September, driven largely by sports-related contracts. Kalshi recorded over $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday alone, CEO Tarek Mansour said.

Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, currently restricts U.S. users but began opening its domestic app to waitlisted users in December after securing CFTC clearance in November. The company plans to fully launch its regulated U.S. platform this year.

Growing scrutiny

The fundraising push comes at a tense moment for the sector. U.S. Representatives Blake Moore (R-Utah) and Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) introduced legislation on Friday that would restrict prediction markets from offering contracts on topics including war and sports, according to the WSJ.

That legislation follows weeks of controversy. Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged six freshly funded wallets that collectively netted roughly $1 million betting on a U.S. strike against Iran hours before the Feb. 28 airstrikes began. Senator Chris Murphy is separately drafting legislation to ban prediction market contracts tied to government actions, alleging White House insiders may have profited.

Kalshi also drew backlash over its handling of a contract tied to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on March 1. Critics argued the platform was operating a proxy death market despite a "death carveout" clause. Polymarket, meanwhile, removed a contract on nuclear weapon detonation after its own wave of backlash.

Both platforms also face an ongoing patchwork of state-level enforcement actions from gaming regulators who view sports prediction markets as unlicensed gambling, though the CFTC has asserted exclusive federal jurisdiction over such contracts.

Challengers enter the fray

The fact that both firms are targeting nearly identical valuations underscores the degree to which investors view prediction markets as a two-horse race. As The Block's Data & Insights newsletter noted in November, most fundraising capital in the sector is concentrated in just two platforms rather than spread across dozens, with investors effectively making a duopoly bet.

The competitive landscape is evolving, though. DraftKings, Coinbase, Gemini, and Crypto.com have all entered or announced prediction market products. Wall Street incumbents Nasdaq and Cboe have also signaled interest in binary outcome contracts.

At $20 billion, either platform would be worth more than DraftKings' current market capitalization and roughly on par with Flutter Entertainment, FanDuel's parent company, a comparison that highlights the persistent tension over whether prediction markets are financial infrastructure or gambling by another name.