Portugal orders Polymarket blocked after election bets surge before results announced

Portugal’s gambling regulator has ordered crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket to cease operations and be blocked in the country, deeming the platform illegal and pointing to a surge in election-related betting before official results were released.

According to Portuguese broadcaster Renascenca, the Portuguese Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) gave Polymarket 48 hours to halt activity in Portugal, after determining that the platform is not authorized to offer betting services and that political betting is prohibited under national law.

As of Monday, following the Jan. 16 notice, the site remained accessible, prompting regulators to move toward network-level blocking.

The order follows unusually heavy activity tied to Portugal’s recent presidential election. More than €4 million ($4.3 million) was wagered on Polymarket’s presidential markets in the hours before results were announced, Renascenca reported. The volume apparently fueled concerns that wagers were possibly executed on leaked exit polls or other non-public information. In total, trading volume across the main presidential market exceeded 110 million euros (about $119 million).

Portuguese authorities said they became aware of Polymarket only recently and described its activity as illegal, emphasizing that they oversee only licensed operators and cannot guarantee that local users will recover funds once the platform is blocked.

Prediction markets under pressure

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket allows users to trade on the outcome of real-world events using cryptocurrency, typically settling bets in stablecoins. While the platform positions itself as a forecasting tool rather than a gambling venue, it has repeatedly drawn scrutiny from regulators over election-related markets.

Portugal’s action adds to a growing list of jurisdictions moving against the platform. Polymarket has faced pressure in several countries over political betting, including France and Germany. Hungary has taken a similar step to Portugal's decision. The country’s gambling regulator, SZTFH, has blocked access to Polymarket from Hungarian IP addresses while it investigates whether the platform is organizing illegal gambling.

Some state regulators in the United States have also stepped up enforcement since the company’s recent re-entry into the market.

Tennessee issued a state-level cease-and-desist order targeting Polymarket’s operations earlier this month, according to prior reporting by The Block. Rival prediction market Kalshi has encountered similar resistance in the U.S., though it recently secured a temporary injunction against a Tennessee order targeting its sports-related contracts.

Expand Chart

Updated to include Hungary's crackdown.