Arkham launches ranking system for prediction market traders

Arkham Intelligence, the onchain analytics platform, has launched a system designed to identify the best-performing prediction markets traders, the firm said Monday.

“The rating uses an Elo/MMR-style system that ranks traders based on prediction accuracy,” Arkham said in a post to X. “Every correct prediction that a trader makes will increase their Elo score relative to other traders. Correct predictions at lower odds will increase a traders Elo by more than correct predictions at higher odds.”

Unlike profit-and-loss rankings, Arkham's system prioritizes accuracy over the amount of money wagered or earned, which means smaller traders with stronger win rates can outrank larger, more profitable traders.

The launch comes as trading volumes on the two dominant prediction markets platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, continue to climb. Arkham's rankings appear to be, for now, focused on ranking Polymarket traders. 

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Arkham pointed out that the Polymarket trader with the highest Elo-ranked, known as “GardenerCx,” enlists a strategy focused on “trading crypto up/down 5 minute markets with incredible accuracy” with a win rate of 64.3% over 2,644 bets.

Rankings are available on Arkham's prediction markets analytics page.

Major tech companies like DraftKings, Robinhood, Meta and Coinbase are all developing or broadening their own prediction markets offerings.