Kraken parent Payward posts 66% drop in Q3 adjusted EBITDA, plans US prediction markets and personal finance AI agent

Kraken parent Payward reported $60 million in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA on Friday, up from $23 million in the second quarter, but down by about two-thirds from the $178.6 million it posted a year earlier.

Payward replaced adjusted revenue with a measure it calls "total platform margin," which also deducts staking rewards paid to customers. Total platform margin rose to $487 million in Q3 from $436 million in Q2, according to the private company's financial highlights released Friday, but fell 12% year over year.

Customers transacted $353 billion across Payward's platforms during the quarter, with volume down 30% from a year earlier but up 22% from the second quarter.

Payward said it ended September with 7.1 million funded accounts, up 7% from Q2 and 37% year over year. Billable accounts stood at 1.5 million, up 9% from Q2 and 74% year over year.

US prediction markets and AI plans

Payward said prediction markets for U.S. clients are among the new products next on its roadmap. Payward Chief Commercial Officer Mark Greenberg had discussed a possible rollout on CNBC last December, though Friday's update gave no planned launch date.

Payward also plans to offer stock perpetual futures through its own CFTC-regulated exchange, clearinghouse, and broker, build apps for local markets, and let customers share collateral across products in one account. It also plans to settle U.S. dollar wires through its Federal Reserve master account, test a U.S. credit card, and fund lending in Europe with customer deposits.

On Wednesday, Payward added more than 200 tokenized UK and European equities to xStocks. In Friday's update, it said it is developing funds built around xStocks, which surpassed $1 billion in AUM in October, and plans to launch xPO, which would let private companies raise capital by issuing shares onchain, subject to regulatory approval.

AI is also an increasing part of the business, with Kraken AI live in the U.S. app, where clients buy, sell, convert, and stake through chat and approve transactions, plus an assistant and strategy builder in Kraken Pro. Next, Payward is planning a separate AI agent for personal finance, working within limits set by customers, who would approve each trade or workflow before it runs.

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