Bitcoin rallies alongside equities as markets anticipate an ECB rate cut this week
Quick Take
- The price of bitcoin has rallied alongside equity indices as wider markets anticipate a rate cut by the European Central Bank this week.
- The bitcoin price rebounded above the $69,000 mark in early trading on Monday.
Bitcoin has correlated with buoyant equity markets in early trading on Monday — with the world's largest digital asset rising over 2% in the past 24 hours. The bitcoin price increased over 2.25% in the past day and was changing hands for $69,035 at 7:15 a.m. ET., according to The Block's Price Pages.
Major European and UK equity indices were green on Monday. In London, the FTSE 100 posted a 13.48-point increase to 8,288.86 in early-day trading. The regional Stoxx 600 index traded up in Europe, gaining 0.44% in the day to 520.44. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures in New York were up 0.15%, while the NYSE Composite increased by 1.3% in pre-market trading.
The uptick comes as borrowers in the eurozone are expected to receive relief from high interest rates this week. Following recent declines in inflation, the European Central Bank is forecasted to lower its benchmark rates on Thursday.
Money markets indicate a 93% chance of an ECB rate cut at this week's monetary policy meeting. The ECB is likely to reduce the rate on its deposit facility, which banks use to make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem, to 3.75%, down from the current record high of 4%.
Bitcoin could benefit from increased market liquidity
Speaking to The Block, Bitfinex Head of Derivatives Jag Kooner said that historically bitcoin has shown a mixed correlation with equities. "During economic stress, bitcoin often mirrors stock market trends as investors liquidate assets, in a stimulus-driven environment with lower rates, bitcoin may benefit alongside equities due to increased liquidity," Kooner said.
Kooner added that bitcoin is also seen as a hedge against inflation. If the ECB rate cut raises inflation expectations, the digital asset might attract more investment as it is seen as "digital gold."
"Bitcoin might follow equities if it continues to be treated as a risk asset, benefiting from the same liquidity inflows," Kooner said.
ECB rate decision impact could be limited
YouHodler Chief of Markets Ruslan Lienkha told The Block that he doesn't see the ECB decision as significantly impacting bitcoin's price. "Expectations of a rate cut in the EU are not reflected in bitcoin’s price movements mostly because the European crypto market is relatively small," he said.
Lienkha added that bitcoin mostly correlates with U.S. equity markets in the medium to long term, although he acknowledged that some divergence is possible in the short term.
"Therefore, a rate cut may stimulate the European equity market to grow, creating a positive sentiment in the U.S. market, and then indirectly supporting crypto prices in the near term," Ruslan said.
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