BlackRock’s spot ETF surpasses 500,000 bitcoin in assets under management

BlackRock’s IBIT spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund crossed 500,000 BTC ($48 billion) in assets under management on Monday, less than a year after trading began on Jan. 11.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF had already accumulated 496,854 BTC as of Nov. 29, according to its latest fund disclosures. IBIT’s $338.3 million ( about 3,526 BTC) worth of net inflows yesterday was enough to tip it over the milestone, reaching 500,380 BTC, according to K33 data — 2.38% of bitcoin's total 21 million supply.

“BlackRock surpassing 500,000 BTC is yet another huge milestone after a tremendous launch year,” K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde told The Block. “It remains the third strongest ETF instrument in the U.S. measured by YTD flow, ahead of Invesco's $314 billion behemoth QQQ.”

IBIT bitcoin holdings. Image: K33.

IBIT's road to 1 million BTC

“Remarkably, the products are well positioned to continue to grow, with IBIT's institutional ownership sitting at 24% as of the end of Q3 2024,” Lunde added. “Eventually, we expect these vehicles to emerge into standard portfolio diversifiers with large funds, allocating 1-3% of their capital to these funds due to BTC's tendency to improve risk-adjusted returns. While AUM surpassing 1 million BTC is well within reach, we expect more soft notional flows to these products in 2025 due to BTC's meteoric rise in value, softening the impact on notional flows.”

"With 500K BTC in possession, IBIT has surpassed MSTR's holdings in less than a year since it started buying BTC," Presto Head of Research Peter Chung told The Block. "It's impressive but you have to remember the BTCs in IBIT belongs to its shareholders, not BlackRock itself. Over the long run, I don't rule out possibility that IBIT holds 1 million BTC. Coincidently, 1 million BTC is what Sen. Lummis proposed as the appropriate holding for the U.S. government in in her Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill. 1 million is about 5% of the total BTC supply, which is equivalent to the U.S. government's share in the global gold reserves."

Speaking to Fox Business after IBIT crossed the 250,000 BTC level in March, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said, "IBIT is the fastest-growing ETF in the history of ETFs," adding his surprise at how much bitcoin had gone up. Bitcoin was trading for around $69,000 then and has since gained a further 38%, currently changing hands for around $95,321, according to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page.

"The consistent and strong inflows to IBIT and its peers throughout the year have been a central source of BTC's push to new all-time highs and highlight the extent to which ETFs improved access to BTC exposure for new pockets of capital," Lunde said.

Closing in on Satoshi’s estimated holdings

Overall, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $353.6 million in net inflows on Monday, continuing a positive run that saw them add a record $6.6 billion in November. According to data compiled by The Block, their cumulative net inflows since the funds launched now total $31.2 billion.

The combined U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are quickly closing in on the 1.1 million BTC estimated to be held by the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, with around 20,000 BTC left to reach the milestone.

Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated holdings are based on a detailed analysis of early bitcoin mining patterns conducted by researchers such as Sergio Demian Lerner, who identified a specific "Patoshi Pattern" in the blockchain. Satoshi is thought to have mined around 22,000 of the first blocks, which, when multiplied by the 50 BTC block subsidy reward at the time, yields the 1.1 million BTC figure. 

However, some researchers argue that the figure could be overstated due to overlapping mining patterns or unverified assumptions about Satoshi's activity during Bitcoin's early days, suggesting it could be more like 600,000 BTC to 700,000 BTC. Others have estimated Satoshi's bitcoin holdings to be as high as 1.5 million BTC.

Meanwhile, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs registered $24.2 million worth of net inflows on Monday, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with $55.9 million. Overall, the ETFs generated a record $1.1 billion in net inflows during November.

Updated with analyst commentary.