Derivatives data indicates traders expect ether price gains ahead of April's Pectra upgrade

Derivatives indicators show that Ethereum is due for a recovery ahead of the April Pectra upgrade while Solana faces downward price pressure, according to an analyst.

Derive.xyz founder Nick Forster pointed to derivatives data showing that Ethereum is enjoying a resurgence of positive sentiment as negative attention fixates on the Solana ecosystem following the dramatic collapse of the Libra memecoin last Friday.

Highlighting market dynamics, Forster told The Block that derivatives traders are positioning for what he called an "Ethereum road to recovery" based on insights drawn from the options market. He pointed out that Ethereum’s seven-day implied volatility (IV) stands at 66% — matching its six-month IV — while bitcoin’s IV is significantly lower.

Forster interprets the derivatives data as evidence that investor attention is shifting away from Solana’s memecoin-dominated ecosystem. "There’s now a 30% chance Ethereum will hit above $3,000 by the end of the quarter — up from 28% last week," he said.

Ethereum traders optimistic ahead of Pectra upgrade

Forster explained that Ethereum’s strong fundamentals, combined with the upcoming Pectra upgrade — scheduled for April 8 — could drive improvements such as enhanced network performance, faster transactions, and better staking mechanics. The Pectra upgrade (also referenced as the Prague/Electra upgrade) is expected to introduce major enhancements in areas like account abstraction and validator operations. The Derive.xyz founder added that the Ethereum Foundation's recent allocation of $120 million to DeFi projects signals a renewed focus on adoption and institutional interest. 

Turning to Solana, Forster forecasts further challenges for the network. "We’re seeing a 10% chance Solana settles above $280 by the end of the quarter, and a 20% chance it will reach below $170 by same date," he said. The Derive.xyz founder added that Solana faces a $2 billion unlock in just under two weeks time — representing nearly 2% of the token's fully diluted value (FDV) — which is expected to put downward pressure on its price. 

Last month, an X user outlined Solana’s token unlock schedule for 2025. While Solana has a current token inflation rate of 4.715%, over the next three months (February-April), over 15 million SOL tokens worth over $7 billion will enter the circulating supply. "February is the biggest one yet, then March triples February's unlock with $2.5 billion of cheaply purchased Solana finally available to sell, this is while influencers who switch conviction plays daily call for $1000 as every Solana meme relentless bleeds out," artchick.eth posted on X.