Standard Chartered says bitcoin likely to keep rising amid Fed independence risks

The price of bitcoin could keep rising if concerns over Federal Reserve independence persist, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research. He categorizes it as a government-sector risk — one of the key scenarios where bitcoin tends to outperform, given its role as a decentralized hedge against traditional financial systems.

Kendrick said bitcoin's primary role in a portfolio is to hedge against risks to the traditional financial system — whether from the private sector, such as bank failures, or from the government sector, like current concerns around Fed independence.

"The current threat to the Fed's independence via [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell's potential replacement falls squarely into the second of these categories," Kendrick said in an email to The Block on Tuesday. "In terms of what is measurable, the current threat plays out via U.S. Treasury term premium, which is now at a 12-year high (10Y term premium)."

U.S. Treasury term premium (10Y) vs. BTC

Source: Standard Chartered

Kendrick said bitcoin has historically shown a strong relationship with the U.S. Treasury term premium, especially since the start of 2024. But in recent weeks, bitcoin has lagged the sharp rise in the term premium. He attributes this lag to bitcoin trading more like a high-growth tech stock lately, reacting to macro headlines such as tariff threats. As a result, he believes bitcoin has room to catch up if Fed independence concerns continue to play out.

"As a result, so long as Fed independence issues continue to play out I think bitcoin will keep heading higher," Kendrick said. "This could be what is needed for the next all-time high."

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $91,200, up about 4% in the past 24 hours, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.

When private and government-sector risks are not in focus, Kendrick said bitcoin tends to trade more like a high-growth tech stock — similar to the Magnificent Seven, or "Mag7."

Kendrick reiterated his existing bitcoin price targets of $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by the end of 2028.

Kendrick has recently issued a series of bold crypto forecasts. Earlier this month, he projected that Avalanche's AVAX token could surge more than 10x to $250 by 2029 and sees XRP climbing to $12.50 by 2028 — a gain of over 500%. In contrast, he cut his 2025 price target for ether to $4,000. He also expects total stablecoin supply to rise nearly tenfold to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, driven by anticipated U.S. regulation.

Standard Chartered's crypto analysts do not hold any digital assets, Kendrick told The Block when contacted on April 15.