Bitwise CIO warns of challenging summer for crypto if Congress 'fumbles the ball' on legislation

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said he is increasingly concerned that the U.S. Congress will "fumble the ball at the one-yard line" on crypto regulation, warning that the industry is in for a difficult summer if legislative efforts fizzle out.

Hougan remains optimistic about the outlook for crypto this year, with a base case for most digital assets to reach all-time highs and bitcoin to rise above $200,000. However, despite the seemingly positive backdrop under the Trump administration, crypto can still be derailed by politicians, he said.

Crypto rallied after the U.S. presidential election in November, partly on the assumption that Washington would take a more positive stance toward crypto. The first 100 days of Trump's tenure have seen the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, digital assets named a "national priority," the SEC reversing crypto-related lawsuits and accounting rules and the end of Operation Choke Point 2.0. However, these initiatives have all stemmed from the White House, meaning they could easily be reversed by future administrations, Hougan warned in a note to clients late Monday.

"To move crypto forward, we need Congress to pass legislation enshrining crypto's progress in law," he said. "Congress passing at least one crypto bill would show that Democrats and Republicans can align on crypto and make it more difficult for future regimes to undo progress."

The stablecoin bill debacle

Hougan had expected stablecoin legislation to rapidly pass this year, broadening crypto's access to the traditional market, creating a new profit center for Wall Street and providing a huge buyer of U.S. debt as a tool to extend dollar dominance globally. A "win, win, win," he said.

In mid-March, this seemed to be on track as the Senate Banking Committee voted 18 to 6 to pass a stablecoin bill, called the GENIUS Act, out of committee, Hougan noted. In that vote, five Democrats on the committee broke ranks to support the bill, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also backing it.

The bill would require stablecoins to have 100% reserve backing with U.S. dollars and short-term treasuries (or other similarly liquid assets), monthly public disclosure of reserves and annual audits for issuers with more than $50 billion in market capitalization. The bill also lays out strict marketing standards, guidelines on insolvency proceedings and other provisions. 

However, over the weekend, nine Democrats, including four of the five who backed the bill in committee and Schumer himself, pulled their support, just days before the bill was set to hit the floor of the Senate. The Democrats argued that the bill needs stronger provisions on national security and anti-money laundering policy.

The bill requires 60 votes to pass in the Senate; with Republicans controlling only 53 seats, a bipartisan deal is a must. "We have a choice here," Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, one of the authors of the bill, wrote in response. "Move forward and make any remaining changes needed in a bipartisan way, or show that digital asset and crypto legislation remains a solely Republican issue."

"The change in tune reflects the shifting political environment in Washington," Hougan said. "The amended version of the bill is actually stronger on AML/KYC and other items than the version that passed out of the Banking Committee, suggesting the Democratic about-face has more to do with President Trump's slumping approval rating and rising chatter over his crypto-related conflicts of interest than any substantive concern."

Hougan also argued that lobbying efforts from the crypto industry to combine stablecoin legislation with broader market structure legislation are not helping. "This is the perfect becoming the enemy of the good," he said. "Market structure legislation is extremely important to crypto's long-term future, but lumping things together will make the passage of any bill more difficult."

What's next?

Beyond the GENIUS Act uncertainty, House Democrats are reportedly planning to walk out of a joint congressional hearing on crypto market structure legislation scheduled for Tuesday as pressure mounts over concerns about President Donald Trump's forays into digital assets.

Another stablecoin bill, known as the STABLE Act, has been advancing in the House. World Liberty Financial, a DeFi project backed by Trump, also recently launched its own stablecoin.

While the future of the GENIUS Act has been thrown into question in its current form, and political jockeying threatens to undermine progress on other crypto-related legislation, Hougan still expects the stablecoin bill to ultimately pass.

"Stablecoins are too obviously beneficial — to America, the dollar, merchants, entrepreneurs, and others — for petty political jockeying to derail progress," he said. "The next few days and weeks will be fraught. If legislation fizzles, this could be a challenging summer for crypto. But if Washington can get its act together, I think the bull market will be unstoppable."