Bitcoin vulnerable to ‘massive flush’ toward $55,000 as capital outflows accelerate, analysts warn

Bitcoin extended its slide on Tuesday, briefly trading below $62,900 and down roughly 4% on the day, as analysts warned the market remains prone to a sharper "flush" amid sustained capital outflows and mounting macro risks.

The move follows earlier weakness highlighted in The Block’s coverage of bitcoin testing $63,000, with broader capitulation still seen as possible. Some market commentators have described trading conditions as "extreme fear."

$55K bottom?

Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, said bitcoin has exited its consolidation phase and entered a new bearish cycle, citing a mix of geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and tightening liquidity.

"This toxic cocktail of economic, political, and geopolitical shocks is aggressively flushing capital out of the crypto market," Hasn wrote, adding that buyers have so far only appeared for short-lived corrective bounces. He sees the $53,000 to $55,000 range as a likely downside target if selling pressure persists.

Matt Howells-Barby, VP at Kraken, noted bitcoin is on track to close six consecutive weekly red candles for the first time since May 2022. He echoed Hasn’s view that renewed tariff uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions are weighing on risk assets broadly.

"The $60k level is a key support level that the bulls are watching closely," Howells-Barby said. "If that level fails to hold, we could potentially see a move into the mid-to-low $50K range."

Macro and onchain strain

Indeed, macro conditions have intensified the crypto market slump. New U.S. tariff measures, shifting global trade dynamics, and rising geopolitical risks have dampened risk appetite.

Amid the market rout, spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows, with some $4 billion pulled from global crypto ETPs over that stretch. Glassnode data cited by BRN Head of Research Timothy Misir shows U.S. spot ETF balances have fallen by roughly 100,000 BTC since the October cycle high, underscoring institutional de-risking.

Onchain and derivatives data also point to a defensive market structure. Active addresses have fallen below their typical range, realized capital continues to contract, and unrealized losses dominate, signaling limited conviction and thinning participation. While aggressive sell pressure has eased at the margin, spot volumes have cooled materially, leaving price action vulnerable to sharp swings.

"Derivatives confirm contraction," Misir wrote. "The 90-day SMA of Change in Open Interest [%] across top crypto assets has remained negative since October 2025. Speculative premium continues to compress. Leverage appetite has yet to return."

Corporate treasuries are also under pressure. Strategy is sitting on roughly $9 billion in unrealized losses on its bitcoin holdings at current prices. At the same time, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate Ethereum treasury, faces an estimated $8 billion-plus unrealized loss on its largely ether-denominated treasury, based on public disclosures and prevailing market levels.

Capitulation still absent

Yet not all signals point to capitulation. Glassnode data show more than 400,000 BTC accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 during the recent downturn, indicating aggressive dip buying in that band. Mining difficulty also recently adjusted higher after a sharp prior drop, a dynamic that Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli said has historically coincided with selloffs nearing exhaustion, as miners resume operations.

Still, liquidity remains thin and momentum fragile. The Relative Strength Index — a gauge of price momentum that measures how quickly and strongly prices have moved — has recovered modestly from oversold levels but remains below bullish thresholds, suggesting stabilization rather than reversal.

For now, analysts say the market is leaning defensive rather than panicked. If $60,000 holds, consolidation may continue, analysts say. If it breaks decisively, several strategists see the mid-$50,000 region — near bitcoin’s realized price, or the average onchain acquisition cost — as the next major zone where longer-term buyers could step back in.

Bitcoin changed hands around $63,400 at publication time, The Block's price page shows.