Bernstein calls FIFA World Cup a 'watershed moment' for prediction markets, projects $5-10B consumer volume surge

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicks off across North America today, is the single largest handle-and-volume catalyst the prediction markets sector has ever faced, according to analysts at Bernstein.

Prediction markets are platforms where users trade contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events such as elections, interest rate decisions, sports results, and popular culture, to name a few. Contract pricing on these venues reflects an implied probability that any given outcome may occur.

The sector had its breakout year in 2024, when blockchain-based platforms like Polymarket drew tens of millions of dollars in volume on the U.S. presidential race alone. Since then, the industry has become a go-to reference for media outlets and political analysts tracking election odds in real time.

The Bernstein analysts argue this year's quadrennial footballing event could be the moment the industry proves it has moved permanently beyond election cycles and niche political contracts.

The expanded 48-team tournament generates 104 matches — roughly 60% more inventory than a standard World Cup — landing in June and July, historically the softest window for online sports betting handle.

Analysts from the research and brokerage firm estimate the event will deliver more than $3 billion in incremental handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in consumer volume uplift across the prediction markets sector.

Possible winners

The firm has long framed prediction markets as complementary to traditional sportsbooks rather than a threat to them. "TikTok, not Napster," as the note puts it, and the World Cup is where that thesis faces its first global stress test at scale.

Bernstein names DraftKings as the clearest overall winner of the tournament, with its prediction markets product as the more consequential leg of that thesis.

DraftKings Predictions is the company's only legal sports product in California, Texas, and Florida — states that collectively hold 52% of the U.S. Hispanic population — giving it a legal route into markets where traditional online sportsbooks cannot operate.

Bernstein estimates the World Cup window alone could generate roughly 650,000 incremental funded Predictions accounts, with the company exiting 2026 at approximately 2 million.

Notably, the regulated online sports betting industry currently under-indexes to the Hispanic consumer by 0.69x.

Bernstein sees DraftKings' Telemundo media tie-in and Spanish-native app build as the sharpest acquisition funnel into that demographic at precisely the moment it matters most.

Robinhood’s play

For Robinhood, the tournament's opening day is a commercial launch moment. The company is using the occasion to debut its partnership with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse that Robinhood invested in alongside Susquehanna International Group in 2025.

The partnership gives Robinhood the ability to recapture exchange economics and lower customer fees, and Bernstein expects prediction markets to be the largest single driver of incremental revenue for the company in 2026.

The product line's trajectory has already been steep.

Approximately 12 billion event contracts were traded across Robinhood in 2025, and roughly 16 billion have already been traded in 2026 year-to-date as of May, per Bernstein.

As of the first quarter of 2026, prediction markets were running at an annualized revenue rate of $415 million. Bernstein projects that figure reaching approximately $586 million by year-end, representing a 286% year-over-year increase and accounting for roughly 17% of Robinhood's transaction-based revenues.

Coinbase's fast ramp

Coinbase's buildout has moved faster still.

The exchange crossed $100 million in annualized prediction markets revenue in March 2026 — within two months of launch — making it one of the fastest-growing product lines in the company's history.

Coinbase is offering World Cup contracts via its Kalshi partnership as part of its "everything exchange" strategy, and Bernstein sees the tournament as the first major global sports catalyst for that product, one that pulls non-crypto-native users onto the platform and diversifies engagement away from cyclical crypto revenue.

Distribution, in Bernstein's framing, is the defining competitive moat.

Robinhood's 13 million monthly active users and Coinbase's 9 million are well-positioned to absorb World Cup volumes in a way pure-play platforms cannot replicate at the same scale.

Kalshi dominates, Polymarket retreats

The broader prediction market category handled approximately $31.2 billion in May, up roughly 5% from April.

Kalshi consolidated its position as the dominant platform, growing 21% month-over-month to $17.9 billion and lifting its market share to approximately 57%. Polymarket's global volumes declined 14.8% to $7.1 billion over the same period.

Bernstein has previously projected total prediction market volumes scaling from around $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, an approximately 80% compound annual growth rate, with 2026 volumes expected to reach $240 billion. The firm estimated industry annualized revenue growing from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026 and $10.8 billion by 2030.

In that note, analysts stressed that sports offer a massive entry point, but do not represent the endgame. A separate take from the firm signaled that prediction markets are evolving into broader information venues.

Expand Chart

Updated to clarify that Rothera is an independent company and a separate legal entity in which Robinhood invested alongside Susquehanna International Group.