Cboe launches prediction market suite with binary option contracts on S&P 500

Cboe Global Markets Inc. has launched the first products in its new prediction markets suite called Cboe Predicts.

According to a Tuesday press release, Cboe Predicts features binary option contracts based on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP). These contracts let customers bet on the performance of the S&P 500 at one-tenth the size of the full index, making them more retail-friendly.

The contracts, listed under tickers XSPBW and XSPBX, are currently available on Interactive Brokers and expected to launch on Charles Schwab in the coming months, confirming earlier reports.

The prediction market suite is an expansion of Cboe's S&P Index options products, including SPX 0DTE — options that expire the same day, allowing traders to take a position on where the S&P 500 will close by the end of the trading session.

"Cboe's S&P 500 options suite has long provided traders with flexibility to define their outcomes through traditional options strategies," said JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe. "With Cboe Predicts, we are expanding that choice by offering simple 'yes-or-no' payout event contracts." 

With the success of Polymarket and Kalshi, multiple traditional financial players have launched prediction market businesses over the past year, including Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Coinbase. However, the regulatory environment for event contracts remains unsettled, with ongoing jurisdictional disputes between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and state authorities.

Cboe has positioned its products differently, noting that its XSP prediction market contracts are security options that will trade under the same regulatory framework as U.S.-listed options.