Strategy's 3,588 BTC sale puts future bitcoin selling in focus: analysts

Strategy's sale of 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million last week — only the third bitcoin sale in the company's history — puts future selling in focus, with Payward subsidiary CF Benchmarks warning recurring sales could become a concern.

On Monday, Strategy said it sold 1,363 BTC for $80.8 million between June 29 and June 30 at an average price of $59,256 per bitcoin. It also sold 2,225 BTC for $135.2 million at an average price of $60,773 between July 1 and July 5.

That meant Strategy reduced its total holdings to 843,775 BTC — worth around $52.3 billion — bought at an average price of $74,476 per bitcoin for a total cost of around $63.7 billion and carrying around $11.4 billion of paper losses at the time of the announcement.

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"On July 6, Strategy's announcement of a bitcoin sale began to answer a question its balance sheet could not: whether management is willing to offload bitcoin to reinforce dollar liquidity," Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, told The Block. The sale represented about 0.42% of Strategy's pre-sale holdings and roughly 1.5 months of current financing carry, he noted.

"The balance sheet can tell investors whether Strategy can pay and the sale begins to show whether it has the willingness to do so," Selby added. "For MSTR common shareholders, the sale can look like dilution; for STRC holders, it can look like protection."

STRC had become a primary driver of Strategy's bitcoin acquisitions earlier this year and currently offers an annualized rate of 12%. However, it has struggled to regain par since mid-May and, therefore, has not been used to accumulate additional bitcoin for several weeks.

The CF Benchmarks research lead said investors are less concerned about Strategy running out of assets than how management will choose to use them. The firm argued STRC's recent drop into the $70s reflected uncertainty over those priorities rather than fears the company lacked sufficient bitcoin, though it noted other factors, including interest rates and market liquidity, may also have contributed.

The firm's models also estimate just a 2.5% probability of bitcoin falling to roughly $23,300, a level at which Strategy's bitcoin holdings and dollar reserves would match its modeled debt and preferred obligations.

According to Selby, Strategy's near-term ability to meet its payment obligations is not in question. The firm's annual financing costs amount to about 3.4% of the value of its bitcoin holdings, while its cash reserves cover around 17.4 months of those costs, or 25.9 months including authorized reserve-building capacity.

"What makes the latest sale relevant is the expanded capital structure created by STRC, with a limited sale supporting its liquidity," Selby said. "The concern begins when selling bitcoin stops being a choice and becomes a recurring requirement for maintaining the capital structure."

More selling capacity than the BTC Monetization Program suggests?

Strategy has sold bitcoin twice before — 704 BTC during the 2022 bear market and another 32 BTC last month — but the latest offload is by far the largest, used to fund payment of distributions on preferred stock and to replenish a portion of its USD reserve used for this purpose to $2.55 billion as of July 5.

As part of its new Digital Credit Capital Framework, Strategy adopted a board-approved policy requiring its USD reserve to be used only for preferred stock dividends and interest payments. 

The company also authorized a $1 billion Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program covering STRC, STRF, STRD and STRK, and a separate $1 billion Class A common stock repurchase program.

Additionally, it introduced a BTC Monetization Program allowing it to sell bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion for the reserve, preferred stock dividends and interest payments, or repurchases of digital credit securities and common stock.

As of July 5, the full amount of this capacity remains available, the firm said on Monday.

Picking up on this point, VanEck Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel said the BTC Monetization Program applies only to reserve-funding sales, while bitcoin sold directly to fund dividend payments falls outside that cap.

"[Strategy] has more BTC selling capacity than [the] '$1.25B' headline suggests," he said.

Meanwhile, the value of many of the digital asset treasury company cohort's shares is down significantly from their summer 2025 peaks as their market cap-to-net asset value ratios sharply contracted. MSTR itself is still down around 79%, for example, with an enterprise mNAV of 1.07, according to the firm.

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