Analysis of Prediction Market Odds on Election Night

The 2020 election was an exciting time for anyone interested in prediction markets. After years of only trivial amounts of activity — and failing to have a similar breakout to other decentralized services such as lending, exchange, and stablecoins — blockchain-based prediction markets saw significant trade volumes during the presidential election.

Polymarket’s primary election market finished with $10.8 million in trade volume and Catnip.Exchange’s (built on Augur) daily volume peaked at over $1.6 million. Each of these platforms facilitated similar trade volumes at their peak day as PredictIt, which had $1.8 million in bets on the platform, and is the most well-known prediction market for political betting in the U.S. Additionally, the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX’s primary Trump and Biden markets had a combined $22 million in daily trade volume at their peak.