Benchmark lowers Coinbase earnings estimates but says Clarity Act could eclipse weak second quarter

Benchmark lowered its second-quarter estimates for crypto exchange Coinbase ahead of next week's earnings report, citing softer crypto trading. The firm still maintained its Buy rating and $270 price target, arguing the potential passage of the Clarity Act could move the stock's needle far more than a soft quarter.

Coinbase (COIN) shares were trading around $172 on Wednesday morning, down around 2% on the day and roughly 27% year to date. Benchmark's $270 price target implies 57% upside from its current levels.

In a client note released Wednesday, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer lowered his second-quarter revenue estimate to $1.38 billion from $1.51 billion and cut back his full-year 2026 revenue estimate to $6 billion from $6.33 billion.

"The trading environment in which COIN operated during 2Q26 was difficult," Palmer wrote. He pointed to a roughly 28% decline in centralized exchange spot trading volume, lower perp futures activity, and a roughly 13% drop in the crypto market cap during the quarter.

Still, Palmer said June showed early signs of stabilization, with spot trading volume climbing back above $1 trillion for the first time since March. He noted that this might soften the impact of a weak quarter, but Benchmark still forecasts a more than 5% drop in transaction revenue.

Coinbase and the Clarity Act catalyst

The firm argues the more important story for COIN investors is the crypto market outlook in the second half of the year.

Palmer said the market has yet to price the "option value" of the Clarity Act, calling Coinbase one of the legislation's biggest potential beneficiaries if it becomes law.

The note comes a day after President Donald Trump signed off on ethics language to clear the last major hurdle for the U.S.' sweeping crypto market structure bill. The proposal would prohibit federal officials from issuing cryptocurrencies and put enforcement in the hands of the Justice Department.