Galaxy cuts Clarity Act passage odds to 30%, says bill needs 'last-ditch effort'

Galaxy Research has cut its estimate of the odds that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% less than a month ago, as the Senate races to advance the crypto market structure bill before its August recess.

Galaxy's head of research, Alex Thorn, said the firm's latest downgrade is based on the closing window of time before lawmakers leave Washington. While Senate negotiators finally released the Clarity Act text this week, Thorn said the coalition needed to pass the bill is "not visibly in place" and argued it needs a "last-ditch effort" and a legislative "grand bargain" to reach President Donald Trump's desk.

"The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy," Thorn wrote, citing opposition from a handful of Democrats, uncertainty over Republican support and just days remaining to begin the floor process if the bill has any chance of becoming law this year.

Galaxy previously lowered its odds of passage to 50% at the end of June, pointing to Senate calendar concerns at the time. Since then, lawmakers have released a combined 616-page draft merging the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees' work, while adding in an ethics package and other revisions.

Still, seven Democratic senators said this week that the latest version still "falls short," and are calling for stronger provisions on ethics, consumer protections, conflicts of interest and illicit finance.

On Friday, the Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association and The Digital Chamber sent a joint letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pushing them to prioritize "floor consideration" of the Clarity Act. 

The groups said the legislation would establish federal rules for digital assets and strengthen consumer protections, adding that the Senate should allow the legislative process to move forward.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci also argued on Thursday that the procedure of the bill has become its biggest hurdle.

"The biggest problem is the procedural one," Scaramucci said during a CNBC appearance, noting lawmakers have only a narrow window before the August recess to begin the floor process. "If it gets to the floor, it's going to pass. That's my opinion."

Thorn echoed the urgency in his report's closing lines. "The time for incremental negotiations is over," he wrote. "The bill needs a last-ditch effort, and it needs leadership. Pass the bill!"