World Cup 2026 prediction markets topped $20 billion, with Ronaldo tears among the biggest wagers

The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated more than $20 billion in onchain prediction market volume, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

Among the tournament's biggest markets was a wager on whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry following what is expected to be his final World Cup appearance. That market alone saw nearly $50 million in volume, with 'yes' contract holders getting paid out in the end.

Aside from novelty pools, traders were putting hundreds of millions of dollars on the line each day over the month-long tournament to predict individual match outcomes, player performances, and which country would take home the FIFA World Cup Trophy.

According to The Block data, Kalshi and Polymarket processed roughly $54 billion in sports prediction market volume between June 11 and July 19, the period spanning the World Cup. It is worth noting that this stretch also included the NBA Finals, Major League Baseball's regular season, Wimbledon and other major sporting events.

Chainalysis did not specify which prediction market platforms were included in its $20 billion World Cup volume estimate, making it difficult to compare with total sports volumes.

The Block has reached out to Chainalysis for additional details on its methodology.

The findings add to evidence that sports are becoming a major driver of prediction market activity. While politics has historically dominated the sector, especially during election cycles, The Block's data show that sports markets accounted for roughly 70% to 85% of trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket during the World Cup. Since the tournament ended, sports' share has fallen to about 60% on Kalshi and 50% on Polymarket.

This mostly lines up with Chainalysis' estimate that World Cup markets accounted for approximately 63% of total onchain prediction market volume during the tournament.

And despite the billions of dollars in volume, Chainalysis found illicit activity remained a small fraction of overall participation. Less than 1% of the roughly 400,000 wallets that interacted with World Cup markets had histories of illicit activity, with sanctioned exchange HTX accounting for the largest share of suspicious funds at around $5.4 million. Scam-linked wallets, stolen funds, and OTC brokers made up even smaller portions of the total.