The Daily: QCP forecasts $80,000-$90,000 range for bitcoin in Q4, and more

The following article is adapted from The Block's newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Thursday! Bitcoin continues to trade lower, now around $81,700, with analysts forecasting a trading range of $80,000 to $90,000 for the fourth quarter.

Also in today's newsletter, Samsung plans to launch USDC transfers on Solana for U.S. Galaxy users, Vitalik Buterin warns against rushing wallet migrations over growing AI threats, JPMorgan estimates $50 billion has flowed into crypto this year, and more.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry is split over Justin Drake's private key recovery warning, and South Korea ranks 12th out of 15 countries in The Block's 2026 Global Crypto Competitiveness Index.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Latent, our sister website covering AI. Get The Latent Daily here and all other The Block newsletters here.

Bitcoin pulls back as QCP forecasts $80,000-90,000 Q4 range

Bitcoin fell below $82,000 on Thursday after topping $87,000 last Friday, while QCP Capital expects the cryptocurrency to trade between $80,000 and $90,000 in its base case for the fourth quarter.

• QCP sees $80,000 to $82,000 as an area to buy bitcoin and would reduce exposure around $88,000 to $90,000 if ETF inflows fail to pick up.
• The firm's bull case puts bitcoin above $100,000, supported by stronger ETF inflows, stablecoin growth, a Fed pause, a softer dollar, lower real yields and progress on the Clarity Act.
• Its bear case sees bitcoin falling below $68,000 to $70,000 if Middle East fighting intensifies, oil prices rise and the Fed raises rates further. Renewed ETF outflows are another risk.
• Glassnode identified large bitcoin buy orders around $81,000, while Kraken's Thomas Perfumo said bitcoin may have already found its cycle bottom after a smaller drawdown than in previous cycles.

Samsung to bring USDC transfers on Solana to U.S. Galaxy users

Samsung plans to introduce USDC transfers on Solana through Samsung Wallet and Samsung Pay in the last week of October, allowing eligible U.S. Galaxy users to send money across borders.

• The feature will be built directly into Samsung Wallet rather than a separate crypto app, with access planned across 82 million U.S. Galaxy devices.
• Users will be able to send USDC to compatible external wallets. Samsung will not charge transfer fees, though receiving wallets or exchanges may charge fees.
• Bastion will provide the stablecoin payment infrastructure, with Coinbase serving as its official sub-custodian. The service will also support transfers to eligible bank accounts in more than 60 countries, with funds delivered in local currencies. Fees may apply depending on the destination.

Vitalik Buterin warns against rushing wallet migrations over AI risks

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned that AI advances in mathematics could weaken widely used cryptography faster than expected, but said crypto holders should not rush to move their funds into new wallets.

• Buterin said keeping funds in addresses that have never signed a transaction is a good precaution if the move is easy, but noted that botched wallet migrations have cost him more than hacks.
• His comments followed Ethereum researcher Justin Drake's warning that widely used cryptography could potentially be broken within months rather than years in a worst-case scenario.
• Buterin also warned that AI advances could weaken other cryptographic systems over the next two years. He recommended more conservative security choices and warned that rushed upgrades could cause users to lose funds.

JPMorgan estimates $50 billion in crypto inflows this year as Q4 momentum improves

JPMorgan analysts estimate around $50 billion has flowed into digital assets this year, equal to an annualized pace of $66 billion, up from $52 billion in May but still about half of last year's pace.

• The analysts said crypto inflows in the first half came mainly from Strategy's bitcoin purchases and venture funding, while ETF flows were weak, particularly in May and June.
• ETF flows have improved since August and are now positive for the year. Institutional positions in bitcoin and ether futures on CME have also increased over the past two months.
• The analysts said crypto venture funding continues to improve, but more money is going into fewer, larger rounds. Bitcoin miners, meanwhile, have been modest net sellers this year, with net selling estimated at around $1.8 billion.

TD Cowen says dilution could limit Strategy shareholder gains despite higher bitcoin forecasts

TD Cowen analysts raised their bitcoin price forecasts but kept its $260 price target and Buy rating on Strategy, saying dilution and financial obligations could limit gains for common shareholders.

• The analysts now expect bitcoin to reach around $109,000 by the end of 2026 and $280,000 by 2029. They said Strategy's debt and preferred shares have claims ahead of common shareholders, while building cash reserves could also limit their gains.
• Strategy's mNAV has recovered to roughly one times its net asset value, after falling as low as 0.63 in June. Its 848,000 BTC holdings carry around $4.5 billion in unrealized profits.

In the next 24 hours

• The University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment survey is due Friday, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is scheduled to speak at the Kansas City Economic Outlook event.
• ECB Executive Board members Piero Cipollone and Isabel Schnabel are scheduled to speak Friday.
• Movement (MOVE) and Babylon (BABY) are among the tokens set for unlocks.

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