Bitcoin pulls back as analysts forecast $80,000-$90,000 Q4 trading range

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading back near $82,000 on Thursday, having previously topped $87,000 last Friday, its highest level since Sept. 23. The retreat comes as QCP Capital forecasts bitcoin will trade between $80,000 and $90,000 in its base case scenario for the fourth quarter.

QCP identified $80,000 to $82,000 as an area to buy bitcoin in its Q4 Digital Assets Market Outlook, while the firm said it would reduce exposure around at $88,000 to $90,000 if exchange-traded fund inflows have not picked up. QCP expects ETF inflows to remain positive but inconsistent, with oil prices elevated but stable and uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act continuing to weigh on the market.

The firm's bull case puts bitcoin above $100,000, supported by sustained ETF inflows, growth in stablecoin supply, a Federal Reserve pause in response to weaker employment data, a softer dollar, lower real yields, and progress on the Clarity Act. QCP said it would look for spot buying to support a move above the range, rather than one driven by traders closing short positions.

In its bear case, the firm sees bitcoin falling below the $68,000 to $70,000 range if fighting in the Middle East intensifies, pushing oil prices higher and prompting further Fed rate hikes. QCP also cited renewed ETF outflows and the possibility of a corporate bitcoin holder being forced to sell as catalysts for that scenario.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $487.1 million in net outflows on Wednesday, reversing $118.8 million in inflows the previous day, according to data compiled by The Block. BlackRock's IBIT led the withdrawals with $207.7 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $105.2 million and Ark Invest/21Shares' ARKB at $101.7 million. The funds have recorded $165.6 million in net outflows over the past five trading sessions following a prior $3.1 billion nine-day inflow streak.

Meanwhile, analysts at Glassnode said bitcoin had fallen back from a sell wall at $86,500 toward several large buy orders, the biggest of which sits around $81,000. The firm expects those bids to help cushion further declines.

One year since bitcoin all-time high

Bitcoin's Oct. 6, 2025 peak above $126,000 was followed almost immediately by the Oct. 10 liquidation crash, from which the crypto market failed to recover. One year on, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo told The Block that previous bitcoin cycles have typically taken 12 to 13 months from their highs to reach a bottom.

However, bitcoin may have found its bottom sooner this cycle, Perfumo said. The cryptocurrency's 54% drawdown to its July low is much smaller compared with the 70% to 85% typical declines seen in prior cycles.

"The arrival of spot ETFs brought in a new class of investors, while a more supportive regulatory environment and growing use of crypto across traditional financial services have strengthened the market's fundamentals," Perfumo said. "With rates high and capital facing more competition from areas like AI, today's bitcoin buyers are accumulating despite a higher opportunity cost. That suggests the holder base is investing with strong conviction rather than simply chasing momentum."

After the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes were released on Wednesday, Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda said they leaned toward further tightening, though traders were still pricing a pause at the October meeting. Meanwhile, initial U.S. jobless claims came in at 197,000 on Thursday, below the 200,000 consensus forecast, with the previous week's figure revised up to 199,000.

Kraken's Perfumo said long-term interest rates remain one of the most important variables for bitcoin's next move.

"If financial conditions ease, particularly if spurred by further policy intervention via injections of liquidity, bitcoin could have a shorter path towards its previous high," he said. "U.S. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously indicated his preference for a smaller balance sheet. But with yields on long-term global sovereign debt trading at generational highs, the pressure to challenge a more conservative central bank posture is rising."

Looking ahead, the Oct. 27–28 Fed meeting, the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, and the Nov. 4 Treasury refunding announcement are among the dates to watch this quarter, the QCP analysts said.