JPMorgan projects 10% annual bitcoin returns in its first long-term forecast, and more

The following article is adapted from The Block's newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Tuesday! Bitcoin is trading around $82,500, while BlackRock's IBIT bitcoin ETF recorded $665 million in inflows, its highest since October 2025.

In today's newsletter, JPMorgan projects 10% annual bitcoin returns in its first long-term forecast, BlackRock files for a bitcoin ETF offering downside protection, a Coinbase and The Block study finds stablecoin transfers average more than $400 million per hour, and more.

Meanwhile, the developer of bitcoin yield platform HoneyB raises $5 million at a $30 million valuation.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Latent, our sister website covering AI. Get The Latent Daily here and all other The Block newsletters here. Also, follow The Block and The Latent on X for more updates.

JPMorgan projects 10% annual bitcoin returns in its first long-term forecast

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has issued its first 10-year bitcoin return forecast, projecting a compounded annual return of 10%, though it says the cryptocurrency is still too volatile for widespread use in investment portfolios.

• The forecast is part of the firm's 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. It estimates bitcoin's volatility at 55%, compared with a projected annual return of 5.5% for gold.
• JPMorgan said bitcoin's high volatility and unstable correlations with other assets remain major obstacles to including it in more investment portfolios.
• The firm has not added bitcoin to its main models that measure how different assets move together. Instead, it has introduced a smaller, separate model comparing bitcoin with selected assets.
• JPMorgan said it could revise its approach as bitcoin becomes less volatile and its correlation with other assets becomes more stable, helped by clearer regulations and better market liquidity.

BlackRock files for bitcoin ETF offering downside protection

BlackRock has filed with the SEC for a new bitcoin ETF that aims to give investors some protection against losses while allowing them to benefit from gains in its existing IBIT fund.

• The proposed iShares Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF would offer exposure to IBIT or similar bitcoin investments, with an approximate limit on potential gains and a level of downside protection.
• BlackRock's IBIT, launched in January 2024, holds more than $65 billion in assets under management and is the largest spot bitcoin ETF.
• The filing follows BlackRock's launch of the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF in June, which aims to provide bitcoin exposure while generating monthly income from options.

Stablecoins move over $400 million per hour, Coinbase and The Block study finds

Stablecoins moved more than $400 million per hour on average in organic transfers during the third quarter, according to a new report from Coinbase and The Block Pro Research.

• The study found that around 73% of screened stablecoin transfer volume happened outside U.S. banking hours over the 12 months ending July 31, showing demand for payments that work around the clock.
• Adjusted stablecoin transfer volume has quadrupled since early 2023, reaching $891 billion in the third quarter. At current growth rates, the report projects quarterly volume could reach $1.5 trillion by the end of 2027.
• The report also said stablecoins are likely to become a key payment method for AI agents in the future.

Mastercard opens early access to AI agent payments

Mastercard has opened early access to its Agent Pay for Machines service, allowing developers to test tools that let AI agents make payments, following pilots with Coinbase, Base, Cloudflare and other firms.

• Developers can now test Mastercard's first payment APIs, toolkit and sandbox. The service supports spending controls and payments through cards, bank accounts and stablecoins, but is not yet commercially available.
• In a demonstration, an AI agent working for marketing agency Hype made nine payments to two providers for research and images, staying within a budget approved by the agency.
• The agent used Coinbase-incubated x402 payment protocol, with Coinbase providing wallet infrastructure and Base handling onchain settlement. Mastercard-owned BVNK also helped process payments in fiat or stablecoins.

Switzerland approves first spot bitcoin ETF for retail investors

Swiss financial regulator FINMA has approved the country's first spot bitcoin ETF for retail investors, allowing a fund to invest directly in bitcoin under Swiss investment fund rules.

• A FINMA spokesperson declined to identify the approved fund or its issuer when contacted by The Block, saying it does not provide institution-specific information.
• Other fund providers have also applied for approval.

In the next 24 hours

• No major U.S. economic data releases are scheduled for Wednesday.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane are scheduled to speak Wednesday.
• No major token unlocks are scheduled for Wednesday.

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